Anatol Kotau: Lukashenka's system Six Month Margin Of Safety

22.12.2022, 12:07

Forecast from the former official.

The website Charter97.org summed up the results of the year with Anatol Kotau, a former employee of Lukashenka's administration. The official who defected to the side of the Belarusian people in 2020 believes that the future of Belarus is being decided on the battlefields of Ukraine.

– What are your assessments of the Belarusian developments this year?

– We can call it close to disaster. Unfortunately, the crisis that began in August 2020 has grown into the true participation of Belarus in the aggression against Ukraine. This time, the existence of Belarus as an independent state is called into question.

– As a former official, you may indicate some points that the average person, watching the actions and listening to statements of the regime, does not see. How has Lukashenka's system changed over this year?

– It seems to me that Lukashenka's system has gone through a certain period of some kind of internal unity. The internal conflicts that took place subsided. We can say that after several operations, the position of Mrs Natallia Kachanava [the head of Lukashenka's administration - Ed.] and her protege in Belarusian key positions have strengthened.

We can also say that Belarusian leadership and patriotism can’t go along. None of the serious top officials expresses any resistance to the ongoing processes in conditions when Belarus is actually subordinated to Russia. This confirms the thesis that their own chair is more important for them than the fate of the country, and even more so of the people.

– Does the system still have a “margin of safety” or is it a colossus with feet of clay?

– If we consider the system in terms of merging with the Russian apparatus, then it has absolutely no “margin of safety”. Most importantly, there is no understanding of how this system will ensure its survival in the long term from more than six months.

If we consider the situation as it develops actually when the Belarusian structures are subordinated to Russia, albeit with some weak resistance, then the margin of safety of the Belarusian system is approximately equal to the margin of safety of the Russian one. This means that everything depends on the situation on the battlefields of Ukraine.

The sooner Ukraine finally wins, the less time Lukashenka will have. After all, defeat in the war will mean serious processes within the Russian Federation. They will face more serious problems than supporting a weak Belarusian ally.

– Will they succeed in pressing Lukashenka to order the Belarusian army invasion of Ukraine?

– I think they will. It's a matter of months. Also, the weather condition affects this. Acceptable weather conditions will benefit the advance of a new wave of offensive.

In general, I am sure that they will launch a new invasion from Belarusian territory. Another thing is how Belarusian troops will be involved. Most likely, some of them will participate in a new invasion of Ukraine as volunteers, or as members of Belarusian or Russian private military companies (PMC). But the scenario of the participation of Belarusian units, in my opinion, is the most probable.

– What can we expect next year? What is your forecast?

– It is necessary not just to wait, but to do our best so that Ukraine wins as soon as possible. We are to build relations with Kyiv in order to understand the future role of Belarus in the region.

Anyway, there will be issues connected to reparations and compensations for participation in the war. The Belarusian role will be stipulated by the participation in the war of a state under the control of the regime and it will depend on the military-diplomatic efforts, including the efforts of the Belarusian civil society.

There is no guilt of the Belarusian society for the war, but there is responsibility.

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Anatol Kotau: Lukashenka's system Six Month Margin Of Safety

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