ISW: Occupiers In Bakhmut Approaching Climax Just Like In Kherson

The Russian army is exhausted.

Russian forces in Bakhmut are significantly depleted and are approaching a climax, as occurred in Kherson in August this year.

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on December 27.

"Russian troops in Bakhmut are possibly close to a climax, just as it was in Kherson in August 2022. Russian combat losses are likely to force Russian troops in Bakhmut to use unit-sized assault groups," the statement reads.

The ISW reminds that the statement made by Colonel Serhiy Cherevatiy, the spokesman for the Eastern grouping of the AFU, that Russian troops in the Bakhmut area no longer operate as company-battalion tactical groups, but in small groups of 10-15 people (squads).

US analysts note that the occupation troops have also degraded from company and battalion tactical groups to individual groups, just as the Russian units in Kherson region visibly degraded in August 2022. The ISW assessed at the time that it pointed to the culmination of the Russian offensive in the region, as the Russian ground forces were so degraded that they could no longer manage units in echelons sufficient to make significant progress.

"The speed of advance of Russian forces in the Bakhmut area has recently slowed amid increasing personnel and ammunition shortages, which will likely prevent them from maintaining high rates of offensive operations in the area in the near term. The reported use of small groups by the Russian military is probably the result of the long gruelling war and points to the degradation of large doctrinal formations higher than platoon level," the ISW stated.