Will Putin Forgive Lukashenka For Kaliningrad "bombing"?

The head of the Kremlin had a "purely accidental" but urgent meeting with Mazepin.

Since February 7, the regime in Belarus has banned rail transit from Lithuania of petroleum products, chemical and mineral fertilizers.

Last time, when Lukashenka threatened in the same manner, the Russian side was concerned about the situation, because it was a risk to appear without communication with Kaliningrad in wintertime, the CYNIC telegram channel writes.

Now the situation has not changed a lot, the "blow" will hurt the Kremlin more than Lithuania. A sufficiently questionable solution from the “friendly regime” of “two main allies”.

But that's not all.

India thinks about buying a million tons of potash fertilizers from Belarus.

The Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) can open a rupee account to sell fertilizers in the Indian State Bank since dollars and euros can not be the currency of payment due to the sanctions.

There is nothing surprising in the scheme.

Nevertheless, the most important issue, that Mazepin had a "purely accidental" but urgent meeting with Putin immediately after the announcement of the sanctions. It was about potash through the Ural, taking into account, that Mazepin himself could become one of the monopolists in the European market. Naturally, Lukashenka had to bargain with Mazepin at the domestic Russian price, and Belarus had to actually lose all its profits.

As it turned out, the volume of such a deal is quite limited, but Lukashenka initially did not plan any bargaining with Mazepin but was looking for a workaround to do a "geopolitical split" once again. He found India.

This means that Belarus will have to sell potash at reduced prices (India will not pay at the rate of Klaipeda), but the outflow of a Belarusian supplier from the European market without a Russian “hook” will cause a rise in potash prices in Europe. The Kremlin would make a profit in the case of the complete hook through Mazepin, Lukashenko would lose even more (the Belarus-India agreement implies a higher price than the agreement at the domestic Russian price), and the price in Europe would remain at the same level with minor fluctuations.

Basically, the situation with the "mate in a trench" is quite significant since Lukashenka bombed Kaliningrad and spat on Mazepin as an act of revenge on Europe.