Natallia Radzina: If Lukashenka Commands To Enter War, He Will Lose Support Of Security Forces

Having suffered losses in Ukraine, the military will turn their backs on the dictator.

Charter97.org Editor-in-Chief Natallia Radzina, in an interview with Radio Racyja, commented on the consequences that Lukashenka will face if he gives the order for the invasion of ground forces into Ukraine.

QUESTION: In your opinion, what could Vladimir Putin and Aliaksandr Lukashenka talk about for five hours, of course, besides what their agencies officially handed over to us.

NATALLIA RADZINA: Indeed, there is very little information. But it is obvious that during this meeting the issue of the entry of the Belarusian army into the territory of Ukraine, and the involvement of the Belarusian army in the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine today with the help of the Lukashenka regime was discussed.

I think that Putin was pushing Lukashenka to make this decision for five hours. And it is difficult now to say what they agreed on.

Apparently, after all, Russia promised the Lukashenka regime certain economic support. And in the near future, one way or another, the Belarusian army may try to enter the war against Ukraine.

How this will happen is still difficult to say. Perhaps it will be an open invasion. However, now information is constantly coming in that the moral and psychological level of the personnel of the Belarusian army is extremely low.

The Belarusian military does not want to fight against the fraternal people. And the officers report that in the event of the entry of the Belarusian army, mass surrender of the Belarusian military or their transfer to the side of Ukraine in this war seems highly possible.

They also say that the junior staff can take up arms against the officers if the Belarusian soldiers are sent to fight in Ukraine.

It is also possible that part of the Belarusian military may set foot on the territory of Ukraine in Russian uniform, as part of Russian units, or will be sent under the guise of “peacekeepers” supposedly to guard the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

These options are quite possible in my opinion.

QUESTION: I have the impression that lately Lukashenka has cooled down significantly in his militant aspirations. Maybe he really doesn't have full control over his army?

NATALLIA RADZINA: I think that these first boastful statements that Lukashenka said about Ukraine, boorish statements about Zelensky and about the Ukrainian military, come from his expectations of a blitzkrieg and of Ukraine surrendering within 3-4 days.

Now he sees the losses that the Russian army is suffering, and we know that about 12,000 Russian soldiers have already died in Ukraine, and there are also heavy losses in equipment.

And in this situation, Lukashenka, of course, understands that if the Belarusian army enters the territory of Ukraine, there will be equally heavy losses among the Belarusian military. And this will lead to the security forces turning away from Lukashenka himself, and he will lose his only and last support.