Bottom Line Still Ahead For Belarusian Economy

That’s the way it works.

How many times have witnesses of stability rhetorically asked on their TV: “Where is your report, ICAO?” They even lost appetite, waiting for this report so eagerly. Finally, the wait is over. The ICAO has published the final report on the forced landing of the plane, writes the Letters to Daughter Telegram channel.

It would be better not to ask, honestly. Although, they did not portray righteous indignation on TV for the ICAO, but for their audience. Consisting, apparently, of one person, whom the Belarusian TV is trying to please.

Not sure about the practical implications of this event. The Belarusian authorities received all the practical consequences in advance. And taking into account all their cumulative merits in strengthening international security, it is already difficult to add something new to these consequences. True, ICAO submitted its report to the UN, but they could have written to Sportloto with the same success.

On the one hand, the reputation of a reckless pirate did not benefit anyone except Jack Sparrow. On the other hand, the reputation of the Belarusian authorities is in such a state that it is difficult to spoil it with anything.

Belstat on Monday calculated the practical consequences of this damaged reputation. If in the first quarter the Belarusian economy slipped down by 0.4 percent, then in the second quarter it fell by 7.6 percent. And now the question is whether the economy has reached the bottom of its decline, or just made a small stop to rest along the way.

The current decline in the economy is the result of sanctions against Belarusian exports. And in this sense, it will be difficult to add something new to the fall that already exists. Exports, which were important for the Belarusian economy, were, one might say, all banned.

But there are also banned European imports. And the banned European import is not the import that is cheese and ham, but the import that is equipment, components and materials useful for production.

The Belarusian economy is arranged in such a way that without imports it can neither grow chickens nor plant potatoes. Let alone industries with a higher level of technological complexity.

Moreover, the Belarusian economy has not really tasted the consequences of sanctions on imports yet. Because we bought in advance and there are stocks in the warehouses. But you can't stock up on the entire economy.

Right now, Belarusian officials have a great plan to replace the missing imports in Russia and have some happiness and a little gesheft on this. But in order to produce something import-substituting, you must first buy something import-substituting. And now they don't sell it. So, it seems to me that the bottom line for the Belarusian economy is still ahead.