AFU Press Enemy Near Balakliya: What Is Known About Unexpectedly Powerful Offensive In Kharkiv Region

The counterattack took the Russian army by surpris

The temporarily occupied town of Balakliya in the Izyum district of the Kharkiv region has attracted the attention of all Ukraine since yesterday. According to data not yet officially confirmed, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to carry out an unexpectedly powerful attack in this area.

NV tells what is known about this offensive operation of Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region.

Probable offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Balakliya area: what is happening

Information about the offensive operation of the Ukrainian forces, which is now being carefully analyzed by Western analysts, began to flow on September 6 from the messages of Russian military bloggers and social media accounts of the occupiers.

For example, the pro-Kremlin propaganda resource Readovka, which actively supports the Russian army and the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine, admitted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine "intensified in the Kharkiv region, and specifically, launched an attack on Balakliya, with the clear goal of reaching Izyum through it" and the Russian group based there. troops. “There are reports of the enemy occupying positions in Verbivka and attempts to enter on its outskirts, as well as blowing up bridges [which were recently under the control of the Russian army],” writes Readovka. This Russian resource also stated that “mobilized from the DPR” were allegedly concentrated in this area and that “they were forced out, they withdrew with a fight.”

Where is Balakliya — a map:

Also, the pro-Kremlin military blogger, writing under the pseudonym Vladlen Tatarsky, noted with indignant surprise: despite the fact that Russian Telegram channels allegedly previously wrote about a possible attack by Ukrainian forces in the direction of Balakliya-Izyum, “the Armed Forces of Ukraine still managed to accumulate forces for the offensive.” He also expressed fantastic hopes that “this is some kind of cunning plan” of the Russian military leaders.

Analyzing such reports, analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War came to the conclusion that the Ukrainian defenders in the Balakliya area “that likely drove Russian forces back to the left bank (north side) of the Severskyi Donets and Serednya Balakliyka rivers”. ISW specialists suggest that on September 6, Ukrainian troops captured Verbivka (less than 3 km northwest of Balakliya) — as evidenced by the footage of the dead invaders filmed by the Ukrainian military. The geolocation of this video, filmed in Verbivka, has been verified.

“Multiple Russian sources acknowledged Ukrainian gains in Verbivka and reported that Russian forces demolished unspecified bridges in Balakliya‘s eastern environs to prevent further Ukrainian advances,” ISW experts write. The photo, published on September 6, also shows the destroyed bridge across the Serednya Balakliyka River, which is probably where the Russian front line passes in this area.

ISW analysts also drew attention to the reports on social media that on September 6, Russian troops withdrew from checkpoints six kilometers west of Balakliya.

In addition, on the evening of September 6, a wave of identical messages (“There is no panic ...”) was circulated through Russian publics on social media writing on military topics, which may be another indirect evidence of the efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Balakliya region.

In the morning of September 7, another Russian Telegram channel confirmed “the encirclement of the combined detachments of the Samara and Bashkir SOBR in the city of Balakliya,” as well as the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to “develop an offensive in two directions at once — on Kupyansk and Izyum.”

Finally, the most relevant confirmation of the new efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Balakliya area is the video, which was released on September 6 by the Grouping of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of Ukraine. In it, as confirmed by the Ukrainian military, “the destruction of the warehouse of the invaders in Balakliya, the S300 installation, as well as the enemy’s self-propelled guns” was recorded.

In addition, on September 7, the Telegram channel of the Strategic Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine published a video of the crash of a Russian Su-25 aircraft in the Balakliya area (near the village of Volokhov Yar), which the Ukrainian military managed to shoot down.

What Western analysts say about the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Balakleya region

Phillips O’Brien, a military analyst and professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews (Scotland), who closely follows the theater of operations in Ukraine, devoted a separate thread on Twitter on September 6 to the likely offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv region.

In his opinion, if Ukrainians really managed to achieve the operational surprise around Kharkiv, this demonstrates “just how the Russian military is in disarray”. O'Brien admits that he thought such surprise was “almost impossible” given the number of monitoring devices available to the enemy (from satellites to UAVs and cybernetic forces, etc.), and also due to the proximity of the region to the border with Russia . “If the Russians missed this, their military is in worse shape than expected. Also a really good sign that Ukraine has its security in the best possible shape,” the expert writes.

Reacting to remarks by other observers that the Balakliya offensive was hardly a surprise to the Russian army — given that Russian Telegram channels have discussed the possibility thereof for weeks, O’Brian said:

“Had some reports that the Russians did have an idea that the Ukrainians were going to attack in Kharkiv and just couldn’t respond. If so, that’s a disarray of a different kind and shows the inflexibility in the Russian military.”

At the same time, ISW experts note that the fact that Russia has transferred forces from the Kharkiv region and from the east of Ukraine to the south probably allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to counterattack in this region if possible — the ISW analysts consider the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Balakliya region to be the realization of such a situational possibility.

Analyzing obituaries and data on the dead Russian servicemen, experts point out that Russia transferred units of the 147th artillery regiment of the 2nd motorized rifle division of the 1st Guards Tank Army to the Kherson region no earlier than the end of August. ISW analysts state that for the first time they have revealed signs of the presence of units of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army of the Russian Federation in southern Ukraine. Parts of the 147th division had previously participated in the March battles in Bucha near Kyiv, and parts of the 1st Guards Tank Army operated mainly in the Kharkiv direction after the Russians left the Kyiv region.

How the Ukrainian authorities comment on the events on the Kharkiv frontline

In the morning summary of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on September 7, there is no mention of the offensive actions of the Ukrainian forces in the Balakliya region — only the shelling carried out by the Russian army on settlements in the Kharkiv direction is mentioned. Earlier, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine repeatedly urged to observe the regime of information silence about the offensives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and explained that they would report on the liberation of certain cities and towns only after which Ukrainian defenders would gain a foothold in them and be able to minimize the risk of enemy attacks on these settlements.

However, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, in his evening address on September 6, called on “all our people who create an information picture” to pay attention not only to Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south, but also to other sectors of the front — naming the Kharkiv region among them.

“Please note and draw the attention of society to the fact that a tough confrontation continues almost along the entire front line. This is 1,300 kilometers of active hostilities. And it's simply unfair when a lot is said about certain sectors of the front, while others seem to be forgotten. Although our fighters in many areas are doing an absolutely great job, they are absolute heroes,” Zelensky stressed. “In the Donbas, and in the Kharkiv region, and in the Zaporizhzhia region, and in the south, and in the border regions of the north and east of the country. The defense of the entire state requires equally sincere and serious attention.”

The city council of Balakliya urged local residents not to disseminate data on the movements of the Ukrainian army in the Kharkiv region.

“There is information about the liberation of some settlements in the Balakliya community. We are waiting for official confirmation. We understand the emotions of everyone now, but we try to observe the mode of information silence. Do not disseminate information about military operations before the official statements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or the Ministry of Defense. We also ask you not to disseminate information about the movement of Ukrainian troops,” the Ukrainian authorities of Balakliya noted.

Oleksiy Arestovich, adviser to the Office of the President, hinted most transparently at the new successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On September 6, on Feygin Live, he noted that “there is news, but it is the president's prerogative to announce it”.

Without naming Balakliya directly, he added: “I will just talk about some town. A town the name of which we do not pronounce. And there happened a misfortune with Putin's soldiers. A severe misfortune ... Such a misfortune happened to them that they fled massively to the east. True, the courageous Russian command is trying to restore the situation, transferring reserves, but a lot of surprises await them there. Some of them are in captivity, and some of them will never drink tea again,” Arestovich said.

Why Balakliya and the Izyum direction are so important

The Balakleya region, and especially the nearby city of Izyum, are important logistics hubs for the Russian army to supply the Russian forces advancing in the Donbas.

Back in early August, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to liberate several villages near Izyum (in particular, Dmytrivka and Dibrovne), analysts from the Institute for the Study of War emphasized the exceptional importance of the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to conduct significant counter-offensive operations simultaneously in several directions.

They noted that if Ukraine could put serious pressure on the positions of the occupiers in the Izyum region, continuing to launch a counteroffensive near Kherson, then Russian troops would face a very difficult choice. “They will probably have to either give up the positions to the west of Izyum in favor of defending their land lines of communication to the north and east, or to dedicate more personnel and equipment to try to hold the current front line. However, such forces would have to be transferred from another direction, which would jeopardize other gains of Russia,” specialists of the Institute for the Study of War explained in early August.

On this ISW map dated September 7, among the new conquests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the village of Verbivka near Balakliya (Kharkiv region) is indicated: