‘Back-Door Struggle Is Coming Out’: Surovikin Was Replaced With Gerasimov
19- 12.01.2023, 16:18
- 24,988
The military expert told what is behind the ‘general castling move’.
On January 11, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu appointed Valeriy Gerasimov, head of the Russian General Staff, commander of the Joint Group of troops in Ukraine. General Sergei Surovikin, who previously held this position, is now only Gerasimov's deputy.
What is the reason for this Putin’s general castling move? The Charter97.org website spoke on this topic with the co-director of the foreign policy and international security programs of the Razumkov Center, the first assistant to the Minister of Defence of Ukraine (2005-2008), military expert Oleksiy Melnyk.
– Obviously, this is another attempt by Putin to remedy the situation in some way, since even he understands that the campaign is close to failure. Putin needs to show the Russians at least some results on the eve of the anniversary of the invasion.
The second thing: many Russian observers note that the back-door struggle between various groups has already come out. At the moment, Putin has decided to change the balance and bring the official leadership of the Armed Forces closer to him.
On the one hand, these are failures and the absence of any successes, including those of Prigozhyn's informal group. On the other hand, these are domestic conflicts. If you try to imagine how it all happened, then most likely Gerasimov and Shoigu tried to justify themselves to Putin once again and to shift the blame onto someone. Putin probably told Gerasimov: "Come on, go and lead on your own." This is my idea of the developments.
– Can this indicate the failure of the tactics of bombing the infrastructure, which was put into service with the advent of Surovikin?
– As for me, I do not believe that the change influenced it, because the command vertical hierarchy is the same. In addition to being the Chief of the General Staff, Gerasimov is also the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Surovikin was still under his command. The following example can illustrate this situation: the boss at some point sees that his subordinate is not coping, and then says: “Let me do it.” But this still does not mean that Surovikin was relieved of these duties.
There is, of course, one feature that changes this situation. Gerasimov had been also responsible for the entire range of tasks and functions that were assigned to the General Staff before he was assigned another post of the commander of the operation. I am talking about the Syrian operation, and the issues of training the Armed Forces, leading and planning, including this ‘special operation’. Now this ‘special operation’ was simply removed from the list of all his duties and put not just in the first place, but separately. If earlier Gerasimov could afford not to do something or not respond in a timely manner (I'm not saying that he somehow interfered with the commander or did not give him freedom of action), now he bears direct responsibility.
If we are talking about Surovikin’s ‘merits’, then these strikes were planned before. It is unlikely that he had such freedom of action that he could launch missiles without Gerasimov's permission, especially those that were already taken from the emergency reserve. In any case, Gerasimov took part there, but until that moment he had the opportunity, in case of failure, to somehow substitute Surovikin. Now he will directly answer to Putin.
– Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner PMC, was intensively criticizing Gerasimov, not so long ago. Lapin headed the headquarters of the Ground Forces of the Russian Armed Forces. Prigozhin was criticizing him as well. Has the Kremlin decided to face down the head of the Wagner PMC?
– In general, these are obvious things. Prigozhin at some point went too far, and he was shown that despite some internal contradictions, one should not go against the system.
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