ISW: Kremlin Changes Rhetoric After Avdiivka Disaster

Russians are being prepared for the worst.

After several days of fighting in Avdiivka, Putin has dramatically changed his rhetoric in an attempt to reduce expectations about the military operation by the Russian Armed Forces on this section of the front, writes the Institute for the Study of War.

Initially, all the Russian media were reporting that Ukraine's counter-offensive had ended and the Russian Armed Forces had launched an offensive along the entire front line. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War analysed the situation around Avdiivka. On the eve, the head of the Russian Federation did not say anything about the offensive of his army in Ukraine, but made it clear that his army was conducting "defensive battles" in the Zaporizhzhia, Kupyansk and Avdiivka directions.

Analysts drew attention to Putin's words about "active defence" rather than "active combat operations".

In this way, the head of the Russian Federation is trying to reduce the expectations of Russians regarding possible future victories by the Russian Armed Forces.

In the near future, Putin's army will not be able to encircle completely the AFU located in Avdiivka. This military operation requires a lot of resources in both manpower and military hardware. Kremlin propagandists have also dramatically changed their rhetoric regarding the events around Avdiivka. Analysts report that the activity of the Russian army in the Avdiivka direction has decreased. The occupiers did not manage to reach Avdiivka in one breath. Having suffered heavy losses, they have reduced the pace of the offensive.

Experts have no doubt that the Russian Defence Ministry will not abandon attempts to encircle Avdiivka, which means that the fighting on this section of the front will continue. It is possible that, having studied the tactical situation on this section of the front in detail, the enemy may become active again.