German Military Expert: Russia Makes Strategic Mistake That May Cost Victory

Putin does not reward competence.

The Russian army has made a huge mistake in the course of the offensive on Avdiivka, during which the Russian Armed forces suffered the heaviest losses in manpower and equipment.

Moreover, the analysis of the situation shows that the Russian command does not draw conclusions from its own mistakes and repeats them time after time, which sooner or later will lead to the victory of Ukraine in the war. This was stated by a German military expert writing under the pseudonym of Tendar, reports "Dialogue".

"I would like to give an assessment of the current situation around Avdiivka. The Russians have made a number of huge mistakes. Despite the early success of the Russian offensive forces first of all in the area of Krasnohorivka, and thanks to the secret build-up of forces in this area, the Russian forces almost immediately showed their weaknesses, especially when it comes to mobile warfare. You can't describe it in any other way than total failure. This has been a constant feature of Russian warfare since February 24, 2022, and it's just amazing how little they've learned since then. There have been several videos of large columns of Russian vehicles trying to squeeze through roads that ended up being narrow passageways. This development was particularly demonstrated by a strike group from Krasnohorivka, which advanced several hundred metres. It was possible to observe Russian tanks trying to bypass the leading vehicles, which were probably stopped by mines or Ukrainian ATGMs and drone groups," he writes.

In fact, these Ukrainian ATGMs and drone groups played a decisive role and stopped the Russian offensive. It was probably also the moment when the Russians' overly optimistic plans went south.

"We saw countless Russian vehicles, mostly the leading vehicles of the convoy, being hit and then watched other Russian vehicles trying to outflank them and rushing recklessly across the fields. The result can be seen in the message I sent yesterday, which shows a Russian tank hit by a TM-62 mine in an open field. I am well aware that the visibility of the "T" series tanks is poor, but hitting such a line of defence, which must have been known before the attack began and which should have been conveyed to all offensive units in advance, only highlights the little combat quality offered by the average Russian soldier. It is true that the Russian command is deliberately sacrificing troops for land, which was particularly evident in Bakhmut and where a 1:10 casualty ratio was acceptable, but this is not a viable strategy. This can also be seen in Bakhmut, where since then the Russian army has been in a defensive position and has been gradually giving up ground," the German expert stressed.

According to him, the biggest mistake of the Russian offensive is that it is strategically considered completely useless.

"Even if we forecast that they will take Avdiivka, which is a very big deal and after this week more than doubtful, it is a huge waste of resources even with the most optimistic forecast. In my opinion, it is even much worse than Vuhledar and Bakhmut, because it completely ignores the situation in Zaporizhzhia. On the southern front line, we can see a huge increase in Russian losses, especially in artillery. In addition to a number of other objectives, it is clear that Ukrainian forces are weakening Russian artillery capabilities. This is accompanied by an apparent reduction in Russian artillery fire, although I believe this is more due to the huge wear and tear on artillery barrels rather than a lack of ammunition, which however is also a problem as Ukraine is systematically destroying logistical centres. In such an atmosphere, one might assume that Russia would prefer to continue investing in an effective and "elastic" defence and allocating resources in order to prevent the Ukrainians from further advancing or simply weakening the Russian defences in Zaporizhzhia, which is what Russian General Ivan Popov demanded shortly before he was sacked from the Russian Ministry of Defence. Instead, this stunt around Avdiivka gets approved and ends, like other Russian offensives, in total disaster.

This shows that Putin does not reward competence. He only rewards loyalty. It cannot even be said that this Russian offensive around Avdiivka will tie up Ukrainian reserves any further, because Avdiivka has always been a fortress that the Ukrainians can defend with a relative minimum of soldiers. In fact, the Russian offensive in this area has made Avdiivka an integral part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive because it ties up huge Russian reserves, and the longer the Russian army tries to capture the town, the better it is for the Ukrainian war effort in the long run. While we cannot fully assess Russian losses in the Avdiivka area, it is still safe to say that they are extremely high and Russia has clearly wasted a huge amount of resources around Avdiivka.

This is a strategic mistake because it would not have changed the strategic situation even if Avdiivka had been taken by Russia. Instead, vital resources needed for the coming winter and next year have vanished forever. In the end, I believe that the Russian offensive on Avdiivka reflects everything that is wrong with Russia's way of waging war in Ukraine.

It is strategically seen as a mistake and will certainly have a negative impact on Russia's war effort in the long run, whether they take Avdiivka or not. It also shows the absolute difference in how Ukraine is fighting the war. In the first weeks of Ukraine's counter-offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to storm the Zaporizhzhia front similarly to Russia storming Avdiivka, but by no means to the same extent or volume as Russia. Ukrainian forces drew the right conclusions, stopped it, changed tactics and started degrading Russia the way one degrades an entrenched enemy. It's not a spectacular way, but it's effective. If continued, it will bring the desired results and, more importantly, it will be persistent. Ukraine has something Russia does not, and that is a coherent military strategy. In the end, this will be the most important reason why Ukraine will win this war," the expert emphasised.