Not Everyone To Be Prepared For Such Rates Of Dollar, Euro

Forecast on currencies.

Myfin.by analysts discuss what to expect from the currency market in mid-November in their weekly forecast.

The Market Costs

The U.S. dollar exchange rate fell to USD/BYN 3.1775. During the week, the dollar fell in price by -0.71%. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar exchange rate has grown by +16.12%. In the moment, namely at the end of trading on Thursday, November 9, the dollar exchange rate decreased to USD/BYN 3.1697, the growth of the exchange rate since the beginning of the year decreased to +15.83%. By the end of the week, the dollar minimally recovered losses.

The Russian ruble rose in value on the Belarusian foreign exchange market to USD/RUB 3.4478 per Br100 during the same time. During the week, the Russian currency has become more expensive by +0.21%, while since the beginning of the year the rate has decreased by -8.87%.

Similar changes took place in the Russian currency market last week. The US dollar exchange rate fluctuated around USD/RUB 92.00, the week closed at USD/RUB 92.2925.

This is quite an expected result, as the filling of the currency market in Russia and Belarus with US dollars corresponds to the demand. The main consumers of the dollar were legal entities-importers. Individuals in Belarus, in particular, according to the National Bank have long been net sellers, while businesses have reduced the share of the U.S. dollar in foreign trade transactions to less than 10%. The share of the Chinese yuan in foreign trade in the Russian Federation exceeded 50 per cent for the first time in October 2023. Thus, the overall demand for US dollars and euros in the domestic foreign exchange market is shrinking. At the same time, the supply of foreign currency is increasing, which leads to a decline in the dollar and euro exchange rate.

In the global financial market, last week ended perfectly calm and passed under the sign of strengthening of the US dollar. The world markets worked off the landmark events of the beginning of the month, when several meetings of regulators were held and encouraging statistics were released. Against this backdrop, the main currency pair EUR/USD was rising at the beginning of the week, but fell to 1.0656 by the end of trading on Friday, November 10.

The yield on 10-year US treasuries, as a leading indicator of the EUR/USD exchange rate, declined during the week and reached the level of 4.646%, although it was still relatively recently striving to fix itself above 5.00%. Gold, as the main asset working against the dollar, decreased in price by about 50 USD/Oz during the week and by the end of the week stopped at the price of 1942.70 USD/Oz. However, the oil lost in price the most - the price of a barrel of Brent fell to 81.70 USD/br.

A Quiet Week is Expected

During the coming week no significant news is expected on the global financial market, the current statistics is likely to support the US dollar. These are the publication of US inflation data on Tuesday, November 14, and consumer market report on Wednesday, November 15 (16:30 Minsk time), as well as Eurozone inflation data on Friday, November 17 (13:00 Minsk time).

Given the above, we can expect a further decline in the U.S. dollar this week, tentatively to USD/BYN 3.1500. The exchange rate of the Russian ruble has chances to grow to RUB/BYN 3.4700 per 100 Russian rubles.