Russia Moving Towards Change Of Power

Without Putin and war.

If Israel and Hamas, after the exchange of prisoners and hostages, eventually, with international mediation and Iran's forced armed neutrality, sign a peace agreement, then the West will turn its attention to Ukraine and Russia, to organise a peace agreement, whatever Putin thinks of himself.

For Putin, ending the war in Ukraine is extremely disadvantageous, because he has not achieved his main goal inside Russia - the extension of the regime of absolute rule, the regime of personal power instead of the prospect of redistribution of power and property in favour of a certain "political bureau" - a group of Russian politicians, oligarchs and law enforcers, consisting of his old and new associates, friends and loyalists. The Kremlin will therefore resist with all its might the fading of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, just as it will resist successful peace talks with Ukraine, which would require Putin to make concessions and compromises and would in any case severely damage his political prospects and absolute power over Russia.

Active attempts by Putin's powerful crony Patrushev to implement a managed succession process are less likely to succeed, as well as Putin's desperate attempts to hold on to absolute power by any means.

Most likely Russia is moving towards a change of power by creating a formally collective form of government (Politburo), a political regime - "Putinism, without Putin". But the end of the war is one of the conditions for such a development.

Viktor Nebozhenko, Facebook