Lukashenka 'Screwed Up'

No one supported the Belarusian dictator's lessons at the CSTO summit.

Armenia is rapidly distancing itself from Moscow and the CSTO it leads. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan's demonstrative disregard for the CSTO summit in Minsk on 23 November is striking evidence of this. The host of the meeting, Lukashenka, did not hide his irritation on this occasion. The pathos of his speech was filled with a categorical appeal to the CSTO partners to maintain unity in the face of NATO's aggressive preparations, and with bitter disappointment at Armenia's almost treacherous behaviour, which undermines this unity. "It is better to discuss problems at meetings, not to make demarches," he admonished his younger Armenian comrade. But none of his colleagues supported this theme...

By contrast, Kazakhstan's Tokayev, who took over the CSTO chairmanship from Lukashenko in 2024, was calm and peaceful, did not brand the aggressive West, and suggested focusing on improving internal procedures and practices within the organisation itself. Its members are now looking forward to seeing the Armenian prime minister in St Petersburg in December, when the EAEU summit will be held.

The current Russian chairmanship is due to be handed over to Armenia. In response, Pashinyan only vaguely hinted that he hoped to discuss Russian-Armenian relations at the highest level. When, where - he did not say....

Meanwhile, relations continue to deteriorate. Pashinyan accused the Russian media of "interfering in Armenia's internal affairs and destabilising the domestic political situation in the country".

Yerevan raised the issue of the $200 million to be paid to Russia by 24 February 2022 in the hope of receiving modern Russian weapons. Realising that Russia itself now lacks weapons, Armenia proposes to offset this money as payment of Armenian debt to Russia.

In addition, Yerevan has recently reiterated that it continues to consider Abkhazia and South Ossetia as Georgian territories and supports the unity and statehood of Georgia. This position contradicts Russia's recognition of the independence of these republics. However, none of Russia's allies has followed suit.

Moscow has not yet officially responded to these signals from Yerevan, preferring to use tried and tested methods of pressure on recalcitrant partners. For several days now, lorries carrying agricultural products from Armenia have been blocked at the Verkhny Lars border crossing. Of course, phytosanitary norms are being violated....

Nikol Pashinyan continues to insist on an elegant formulation, saying that it is not Armenia that is leaving the CSTO, but the CSTO that is leaving Armenia. His evidence is convincing - the CSTO has not decided which of Armenia's borders it is prepared to defend, given that a small part of Armenian territory is currently occupied by Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Armenia is actively seeking and finding new guarantors of its security in the West. It is not leaving the framework of its obligations within the CSTO, which prohibit the deployment of third countries' military infrastructure on its territory without the consent of its partners. And if it asks for coordination..... Will it get it?

Given the current situation, the question seems rhetorical. Does it mean that the next step could be a declaration of Armenia's readiness to declare itself a non-aligned state?

In any case, this is exactly the status that Russia demanded from Ukraine not so long ago.

Arkady Dubnov, Telegram