Putin's Personal Miscalculation: Why Europe Gave Up On Russian Gas

The Nord Stream plan turned out to be a failure.

Is it possible, looking back, to say that for Russia, influence on the European energy market was one of the tools to reduce assistance to Ukraine after a full-scale invasion? Ex-head of NJSC Naftogaz Andriy Kobolev answered this question in an interview with Channel 24.

The fatal mistake

The critical mistake for Russians was their belief in their own propaganda. This happened after the start of a full-scale invasion.

The Russians believed in their statements and decided to take advantage of this by pressing the button. They blew up Nord Streams, hoping that Europe could not live without Russian gas and would come to the negotiating table itself.

“There was one thread left intact, if I remember correctly. That is, they had options on how to return to this. The Russians planned to wait for Europe to come to them and start begging: “Give us gas.” Then the Kremlin would say: “You stop aid to Ukraine, and we will give you gas,” says Andriy Kobolev.

The plan didn't work

The Nord Stream plan turned out to be a failure. Europe found other suppliers, and there was no need to turn to Russia. The ex-head of Naftogaz claims that this is Putin’s personal miscalculation.

In addition, this misconception has expanded the route to Europe for Russia's competitors.

Another reason why Russia failed to tighten the so-called “energy stranglehold” is the unexpectedly powerful resistance of Ukraine.

“It surprised the Russians in a bad way, and in a good way for us. We are talking about actions both at the front and in the global information field. That is, they were counting on a situation, I think, similar to the Crimea — that everything was more or less quiet, they would come in, take it, and then after the fight they wouldn’t wave their fists. This did not happen”, says the expert.

Adding to the Ukrainian resistance was also informational resistance and economic confrontation. This showed the EU countries that Russia is not a strong and terrible opponent, as was previously thought.