Natallia Radzina: People Hate Lukashenka, And Are Getting Prepared

What could trigger a regime collapse?

Analysts at the German Society for Foreign Policy have concluded that Russia could attack NATO six years after the war in Ukraine is over or frozen. The analysts believe that the Russian Federation will build up its forces, and as soon as Moscow sees a window of opportunity to attack the Baltic states, it will do so immediately. And Belarus, or more precisely Belarusian territory, will play an important role in this.

Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org, told Apostrophe TV whether pro-Kremlin Belarus will help Putin's imperial ambitions.

— From the point of view of Belarus, will Putin only use the territory to get to the borders of the EU countries, or will he count on the full support of the Belarusian dictatorship?

— Of course, Putin will count on full support. And the attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus confirmed that Belarus was and is in fact a Russian military bridgehead during all the years of Lukashenka's regime.

NATO considered Belarus a military-political part of Russia even before 2022. I attended the NATO summit in Warsaw in 2016, and even then the military of the alliance countries stated that the Belarusian army was in fact part of the Russian army. It is strange that this was not noticed in Ukraine until the attack in February 2022. And it is quite obvious that all the threats remain. If today there are no new attacks from the territory of Belarus, it does not mean there will be none in the future.

Even a recent interview with Servant of the People MP Arahamia — in which David talks about negotiations with Lukashenka at the start of the war — confirms that the Belarusian dictator is now incapable of opposing the Kremlin's plans in any way. As Lukashenka said directly: “I cannot prevent Russian troops from entering Ukraine from Belarusian territory; I cannot not provide military infrastructure for the Russian army”. The only thing he can do is to prevent the Belarusian army from taking part in this war. But even this is an

exaggeration, because if Putin needs these 15,000 Belarusian troops — the number of combat-ready troops in Belarus according to various estimates — to join the war, they will join the war.

Another thing is that it does not make much sense today. But if necessary, the Belarusian army will be involved. Given the current situation, when Russian nuclear weapons may be deployed on the territory of Belarus, it is all the more dangerous. We hear both from Lukashenka and Putin and from the puppets in the Kremlin and in Minsk that these nuclear weapons can be used against Ukraine and Western countries.

Moreover, Belarusian-Russian military exercises have taken place for years to practice attacks on the Baltic states and Poland. They have even practised a nuclear attack on Warsaw. So these plans have long been known to everyone, including NATO.

— During almost two years of war, a lot of weapons that were in warehouses in Belarus were transferred to the Russian troops. There is an interesting detail: Russia's budget for the next few years includes the modernisation of Belarus' military infrastructure. Can we assume that during these years the military potential will accumulate and then we will be able to say that Russia, having strengthened itself with the forces of the Belarusian army, will try to carry out an attack?

— It could happen much sooner. Agreements have been signed on the renewal of the rear military infrastructure on the territory of Belarus. But Moscow's plans for the territory of Belarus have always been aggressive. Another question is whether the dictators have that much time. Because I am convinced that both Putin and Lukashenka do not have much time left, because these regimes are falling apart.

I do not believe that these regimes have a long-term perspective, so serious measures are needed against them to end their days as soon as possible. This means, first and foremost, serious international pressure. What we observe now is widespread evasion of the sanctions imposed. We need tough economic measures and monitoring of their implementation. This is needed alongside serious military support for Ukraine so it can finally win.

— First of all, military support is needed because the front line is in Ukraine and we rely on our allies. We also know that Russia has learnt to circumvent sanctions through third countries. But somehow we have forgotten Belarus, and recently Latvia has suggested that it is necessary to unify sanctions against Russia and Belarus so that both dictatorships are weakened equally. Can this be done?

— It is essential to strengthen sanctions directly against Lukashenka's regime and to synchronise sanctions against Russia and Belarus. The lack of synchronisation today makes it possible to circumvent the restrictions, including through the territory of Belarus. It is also necessary to introduce secondary sanctions against the countries that today help Moscow to evade the restrictions. These are primarily the countries of Central Asia — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. They include Armenia and Georgia, Turkey, of course, as well as Serbia and a number of other countries. The EU needs a central regulator of these sanctions, as is the case in the United States. All countries that today help criminal regimes to evade sanctions must be punished. If this happens, the restrictions imposed will work.

Only strong pressure on the Putin and Lukashenka regimes will bring about the downfall and imminent collapse of these dictatorships.

As for the people, I am strongly opposed to equating Belarusians with Russians. Because Belarusians today live under double occupation - on the one hand, the dictatorial regime of Lukashenka, and on the other, the pro-Kremlin regime that exists today only thanks to the support of the Kremlin.

The year 2020, when millions of Belarusians took to the streets, showed that the people themselves are strongly against the regime. The year 2022 confirmed that the people are strongly against the war in Ukraine. But today the people of Belarus are under such oppression that it's immoral for EU countries to impose sanctions on them. It's just not possible.

— We know that Lukashenka is now trying to build a Belarusian society that suits him, and there is a complete purge of those who oppose him. Most of the dissidents have either left the country or are in prisons. But how do these processes work now, and how difficult are they for those people who are still on the territory of Belarus but do not meet the regime's standards?

— It is incredibly difficult for people, but it is impossible today to express one's political position and dissent. This inevitably entails arrests. Even a statement on social networks can result in a sentence of 5-7 years in prison. People are arrested even for liking, let alone posting.

People are hiding today because it doesn't make sense to stand up and then go to jail. In general, according to different estimates, there are about 8-10 thousand political prisoners in Belarus. Human rights activists are not even able to count the number of people who have fallen victim to the repression and ended up in prison. The figures given by the regime today — about two thousand people — do not correspond to reality.

Nevertheless, I can say for sure that Belarusians hate Lukashenka, and this hatred has not disappeared since 2020. Nobody liked Lukashenka. But so far the hatred is in a latent state and just accumulates. And at some point, when the circumstances are right, people will be able to show it.

— But it requires the unity of the Belarusian opposition. And the situation in Europe now looks as if it is fragmented, with several camps. Yes, the Belarusians show the Europeans all the crimes of the dictator on the territory of Belarus. But why is there still no unity?

— There can't be any in the current situation. Take, for example, what is happening now. We witness a crisis of confidence in Tsikhanouskaya's office. This office and its structures have simply discouraged people because there are no results from their work. Even what could have been done in the West — serious work on sanctions against the Lukashenka regime — did not happen. Not to mention real support for political prisoners and achieving some political results. Therefore, people are disappointed and do not regard them as leaders. People also understand that the real leaders of Belarus today are in prison. And when these people leave prison, the political situation will be completely different.

— We see Lukashenka’s steps, which indicate that he is allegedly looking for additional opportunities for cooperation. I'm talking about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. If sanctions are unified, will Belarus be able to derive any benefit from this organization?

— There will be no practical meaning. This is a decoration that Lukashenka’s propaganda will try to use as a factor in some kind of legitimation of Lukashenka, they say, he will be recognized by the SCO countries. And despite the fact that this is an economic union, no investment fund has been created in it for more than 20 years of existence. Therefore, Lukashenka cannot count on any loans from the SCO.

Militarily, there is nothing for him there either. Perhaps there will be some intensification of relations with the countries of this union. But in any case, he will have to negotiate with every country that will support cooperation.

Recently, Lukashenka proposed holding some kind of festival within the SCO. This is just songs and dances — there will be such cooperation with him, but nothing more.

In general, the abbreviation SCO has another meaning in Belarus. After the presidential elections back in 2010, a comic toast appeared. Since it was impossible to directly say any anti-Lukashenka things, they came up with a toast “let him die,” ([šob on sdoch]) that is, the SCO also has such a meaning in Belarus.

— Sometimes your resource “Charter’97” publishes interesting and rather spicy materials about how the Lukashenka regime can make money from drugs. How should we perceive this information and are there really any hints that Lukashenka can receive such sources of funding and establish “black” cooperation?

— Of course, anything. For 30 years, Lukashenka has sold everything, from weapons to drugs. I believe that all this is possible from the countries of Central Asia and Venezuela through the territory of Belarus to the West. This is another reason for the United States to pay attention to Belarus-Venezuela trade relations.

— I can’t help but ask about Belarusian volunteers in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. What status do fallen soldiers receive in their homeland and do their families receive help from Ukraine?

— More than 50 Belarusians have already died in the war. We don’t know all the names, we only know their call signs, because many are afraid for their families and even asked in the event of their death not to give their names and surnames, because it is very dangerous for their relatives. Many have families in Belarus, and if the law-enforcers find out that their children, husbands or relatives have gone to fight in Ukraine, then repression will inevitably be applied against the families — people will be fired, or arrested.

— How do Belarusians living in Europe support Belarusian volunteers?

— All Belarusian volunteer associations help and support, and not just the Kalinouski Regiment. A lot of Belarusians are fighting in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

If, after being wounded, people demobilize and go to Poland or Lithuania, then, of course, Belarusian organizations try to provide some kind of assistance. There should be more of it, but it is there.

— To close our conversation — is Europe ready for a long marathon, if we are speaking about the war in Ukraine?

— You cannot get tired of this situation, because this is fraught with much greater problems for Europe and the entire Western civilization than the costs that they are forced to bear today while helping Ukraine. Under no circumstances should you stop and get tired. But at the same time, it is necessary to take serious steps, that is, to supply Ukraine with the weapons that the Ukrainian army needs, and not provide military assistance in dribs and drabs, making decisions over many months.

We need to work hard and end this war in a short time, and not drag out the process for many years, since this only leads to an increasing number of victims. And yes, you can get tired of such a process.