ISW: Russia Outlines Objectives In Ukraine

Negotiations are pointless.

ISW analysts drew attention to the statement of the press secretary of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova, which confirms the immutability of Russia’s maximalist goals in Ukraine and the Kremlin’s actual demand for the complete political capitulation of Ukraine.

In a written interview with AFP on December 9, Zakharova claimed that a "comprehensive, sustainable, and fair resolution" in Ukraine can only happen if the West stops "pumping up the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons" and that Ukraine surrenders Russia’s claimed Ukrainian territory and "withdraws its troops," presumably from Ukrainian territory Russia claims to have annexed. Zakharova emphasized the Kremlin's longstanding claim that Russia invaded Ukraine for “de-militarization”, “denazification”, and to “ensure the rights of Russian-speaking citizens” in Ukraine. The ISW reminds that the Kremlin has consistently used the term “denazification” as code for the removal of the elected government of Ukraine and its replacement by some government the Kremlin regards as acceptable.

“De-militarization” would obviously leave Ukraine permanently at Russia’s mercy. Zakharova's comments clearly highlight the fact that the initial goals of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as set out by Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 24, 2022, have not changed, and that Putin does not intend to end the war unless his maximalist objectives have been accomplished, the ISW stresses. ISW continues to assess that Russia does not intend to engage in serious negotiations with Ukraine in good faith and that negotiations on Russia's terms are tantamount to full Ukrainian and Western surrender.

Zakharova's demand that Ukraine withdraw its troops from “Russian territory” as a necessary prerequisite for the resolution of the war suggests that Russia's maximalist objectives include controlling the entirety of the four oblasts it has illegally annexed parts of. Russian forces currently militarily control portions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, but Russia formally (and illegally) annexed the entirety of these oblasts in September of 2022. Thus, the Russian demands include the surrender of additional Ukrainian territory that Russian forces do not currently control up to the administrative borders of the four occupied oblasts of Ukraine.

Calls for Ukraine's capitulation under the current circumstances of Russian control of Ukrainian territory up to the current frontline are already unacceptable from the standpoint of vital Ukrainian and Western national security interests, as ISW has previously assessed. The Russian demand for an even more expansive surrender of Ukrainian-held territory, indicates that Russia’s aims far transcend keeping the territory Russian forces have already seized. It is noteworthy, in this regard, that Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, which Russia has not claimed to have annexed, suggesting that Russia’s territorial aims may be even more expansive than those Zakharova laid out.

At the same time, the ISW analysts remind that the hypothetical conquering of the remaining unoccupied districts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions would cost Russia tremendous additional blood, treasure, and time, if Russia can do it at all.