A Chance For Belarusians, Russia Embraces USSR's Path, Ukraine Achieves Three Victories: Main Yearly Highlights
18- 18.12.2023, 14:48
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Boryslav Bereza believes that Goliath will fall, and David will win.
There are 13 days left until the New Year. The website Charter97.org asked the Ukrainian politician, ex-member of the Verkhovna Rada Boryslav Bereza to sum up the main results of the outgoing year and give a forecast for 2024:
— There are positive and negative results for Ukraine. Among the positive ones, firstly, is that Ukraine survived in 2023 and, I hope, will survive in the coming years. Then our country, having consolidated its forces, will begin to completely squeeze Russia out of its territory in all directions. For now, we are in a positional war, which Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny spoke about.
Secondly, despite the constant rumors that “the West is abandoning Ukraine,” our country is still in the focus of attention of Western politicians. There is a discussion about both the allocation of money and the receipt of weapons.
A serious problem for Ukraine today is that weapons and ammunition in warehouses are running out, now they need to be produced. And this is time, which, unfortunately, plays against us.
No one in Europe has planned for war since the end of the Cold War. All these years, only Russia has been accumulating weapons, so now Europe (and we along with it) is reaping the fruits of a superficial attitude towards the threat of war. Those who did not believe are now forced not only to believe, but to realize that it could develop into the Third World War.
Thirdly, it is worth highlighting what the Ukrainian economy has withstood. Although Russia expected Ukraine to collapse after the grain blockade began, attacks were carried out on all infrastructure, from energy to ports.
We can say that Ukraine survived. For now, you need to gather your will and strength into a fist, and then strike. Goliath will fall, and David will win.
— Now many people are talking about the West’s fatigue from the war; there are politicians calling for a refusal to help Ukraine. Do you think the West will come to its senses?
— Everything is very simple. Look, I communicate with politicians and clearly understand their motivation. When one says that all people need to have long hair, then another, in order to be different from him, will say that everyone needs to shave. Politics is built precisely on such polarities and contrasts. Nothing surprising.
Note that the same Orban, who recently shouted that he was against Ukraine’s entry into the EU, has now completely changed his words. It doesn't matter what politicians say, but what matters is what they do.
For example, Germany is now producing armored vehicles for Ukraine on the territory of Hungary, implementing a contract within the EU. It will bring money to the EU and armored vehicles to Ukraine. There is less need to react to loud statements, and more to real actions.
Democrats and Republicans in the United States now agree that they need to help Ukraine. Unfortunately, they have presidential elections coming up. Accordingly, there is a more important story here about how each of these sides can win. They are trying to play Ukraine as a separate card. We need to look at these things soberly. The question here is not that they do not want to help Ukraine, but that they want to win the elections today.
There is no fatigue, but there are attempts by politicians to use Ukraine as a trump card in some of their political arrangements, no more and no less. Some want to play against Ukraine, others are for it. The main thing is that support is not going anywhere.
— What results does Russia end this year with?
— From the slogan “Kyiv in three days,” they moved to the slogan “let’s take at least something.” Putin wanted to get Avdiivka by his direct line — he didn’t get it. Now he wants to get Avdiivka at least by the elections in mid-March — he won’t get it either. Putin is already dreaming of anything to show results. He hopes that the West will get tired, but the West is not getting tired.
Moreover, even Germany, which always said, let’s negotiate with Russia, has today come to a completely different position.
It voices goals and objectives that coincide with the goals and objectives of Ukraine, namely, to ensure the country’s defense capability through more powerful weapons and financing.
Now we see how the German military command, together with the government, decides to increase the budget from 4 to 8 billion in aid per year, and this is an indicator.
We can say that today Russia was able to emerge from isolation due to several things: other dictatorial regimes, anti-colonial rhetoric and inciting wars around the world. In fact, there is a continuation of the strategy of the USSR, which, by buying politicians loyal to itself, inciting wars, ensured its interests throughout the world. This is what Russia is doing today, but we remember what the USSR led to. The Russian Federation will also end in collapse. This could happen either in the next three years or in the next 10 years.
It is important that this house of cards does not crush Ukraine with both the flow of refugees and what will begin there. And it will be worse than in the 90s. In addition, it must be said that this will be a time of opportunity for Belarus, which will be able to free itself from the de facto Anschluss on the part of Russia.
Belarusians will have a chance to live in a free, developing, democratic Belarus, where the security forces are only a guarantee of the implementation of laws, and not a repressive apparatus of power.
— This is in the long term. I would like to hear your forecast, looking at the latest trends, how do you see 2024?
— Next year will be very difficult. First, there will be 48 elections around the world. Including in Europe, the USA and the Russian Federation. If in Russia everything is clear, they will elect “Putin to Putin,” then, for example, how the elections in the United States will end, no one knows.
If Trump is not allowed to participate in the elections due to criminal prosecution (the likelihood of this is extremely high), then it is not a fact that Biden will be nominated. Then the Democrats will have a completely different candidate, for example, Michelle Obama. Then we will see completely different scenarios.
You also need to understand that next year’s elections will greatly influence not only the rhetoric, but also the processes. Russia will wait to see how the US elections end.
If it is not Trump who wins in the United States, then Russia will be forced to look for options for negotiations with Ukraine, because with all the wonderful speeches coming from Channel One and voiced by the Russian leadership, people in Russia feel the war very well.
Some, of course, earned money, but even more (300 thousand) lost their children, brothers, and husbands. The rest also don’t really want to die in Ukraine. In addition, the Russian Federation has big problems with the labor force, which is officially confirmed by Rosstat.
Russia’s complete dependence on China is already visible to the naked eye. Putin does not benefit from continued sanctions and isolation. He may puff his cheeks and show his indifference, but the real situation is extremely bad for the Russians in the long term, and they understand it.
Yes, Putin can fight for a long time, but the question is that he cannot achieve anything. A war without goals and achievements is a big problem for Russia’s domestic politics.
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