Alexander Fridman On Border Closure: Poland, Lithuania, Latvia Will Not Stand On Ceremony
13- 24.02.2023, 19:48
- 36,376
Everything is moving towards a new Iron Curtain.
Poland is expelling the Belarusian military attaché from the country. Warsaw does not exclude that it will completely close the borders with Belarus either. Earlier, Poland had already closed the checkpoints in Bobrowniki and Kukuryki. How strong is this blow to the Belarusian regime?
The website Charter97.org asked this question to political observer Alexander Fridman.
— Of course, this is an effective step, because it hit the Belarusian authorities and forced them to act. This is a step towards the final “Iron Curtain”, which may close on the Belarusian border. Certainly, this is a blow to the Belarusian economy and carriers.
The Belarusian authorities will show that this is insignificant, that there is nothing in it, as Lukashenka said: “Poland shot itself in the leg”. However, this should not distract from the realities, and they are deplorable. If the border is closed, the “Iron Curtain” will fall, this, of course, will hit the regime, but first of all, the people who live in Belarus.
— How likely is the scenario that Poland will completely close the border?
— I would say that not only the option of closing the border with Poland is likely. I can very well imagine that things will come to the point that all western borders will be closed — both with Lithuania and Latvia. This can happen in case of exacerbation and further escalation. And Warsaw is ready for this escalation: Poland is expelling the military attaché of Belarus.
If, for example, Belarusian troops take part in hostilities or strikes on the territory of Ukraine from Belarus and, accordingly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine strike back, and Belarus becomes the arena of hostilities.
In this case, it is quite possible. Also, a complete closure of the borders is possible in the event of drastic retaliatory steps from Lukashenka. After all, he is known for asymmetrical steps, there may be some sharp movements towards Poland. In this case, Warsaw will close the border, and Lithuania and Latvia will solidarize.
— Who can “blink” first: Warsaw or Lukashenka?
— I think that the situation is very tense, and Lithuania, Latvia and Poland will not stand on ceremony. First, they are annoyed that the European Union is not adopting the harsh sanctions they expect. They demand more than the EU does. Also in Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga, Lukashenka is not considered an independent player. True, he is not considered independent in the entire West, but from the point of view of the Baltic countries and Poland, Belarus is under occupation, and what is happening is controlled by Russia.
However, Lukashenka, as a conspiracy theorist, may think that Poland really wants to attack him. Therefore, I do not exclude drastic steps from his side.
I also do not rule out that Poland, Lithuania and Latvia will act preventively. As for Lukashenka, if Belarus enters the war, some kind of hostilities begin on Belarusian territory, then even before the announcement of mobilization, Lukashenka will close the borders. What we saw in Russia, when people began to flee after the announcement of partial mobilization, and the Russian Federation did not fully close the borders, Lukashenka will not linger. After all, it is absolutely clear that if Belarusian troops are sent to Ukraine, a mass exodus from Belarus will begin. After all, for the majority of Belarusians this war is not their war. Regardless of who they support, it is alien to them, they do not want to participate in it. I think that in this case, Lukashenka will try to prevent this and close the borders.
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