Media: Lukashenka Finds Himself In Shaky Position

Russia may demand the bankrupt dictator to pay his debts.

According to the Channel 24 sources in the Ukrainian security services, Lukashenka's regime is in a very shaky position, which is constantly deteriorating. On top of the problems posed by Russian domination of Belarusian territory and the sanction pressure from civilised countries, there are also the foreign economic debts of Minsk and Putin's demands to go to war against Ukraine.

However, even despite Lukashenka's successful avoidance of direct involvement of the Belarusian army in the war against Ukraine, it is becoming increasingly difficult for him to sit in the political leg-split. Primarily because his country is bankrupt.

Lukashenka has been building his state in the Soviet style for many years: preferring to draw figures showing unprecedented development instead of getting real achievements.

Moreover, Belarus has in fact survived thanks to continuous loans from Russia, as well as to its lucky geographical location between the two worlds. Therefore, thanks to the transit of goods to Europe, an oil refinery, export of fertilizers and virtually unlimited access to the Russian treasury, the dictatorial regime was able to talk about exceeding budgets and excessive demand for Belarusian tractors around the world.

In reality, the Belarusian economy was gradually rotting and becoming increasingly dependent on Putin and his clique. All the more so because at certain critical moments the experienced moustachioed manager played Erdogan and started to rule the economy, which did not make things better. You can order the central bank to cross out the extra zero on notes 10 times, but it will not affect the real paying capacity of the currency.

After the protests and additional restrictions imposed on the regime, the economy of Belarus felt really bad. And, obviously, it started to depend on Moscow not even by 50%, but by all of 80%. And when Putin's troops decided to use their allied country as a springboard for aggression, Lukashenka ended up in direct dependence on the Kremlin.

As Belarus de facto was in default, Russia had to defer its loan repayments and inject money into the economy, which instantly lost its last relations with the West and its ability to make any money in the rich markets. It would seem that Lukashenka could not delay his complete subjugation to Putin, but the dictator has managed not to postpone the necessity of making a leap of faith into the abyss. At the same time, he is no longer able to influence the economic downfall. For Russia is in some way or another dragging Belarus down with it.

For the whole of 2022, Russia's accomplice country survived solely on loans and remaining exports to Europe. However, the failures were partially offset by defence orders from Russia. Indeed, it was the Belarusian factories that started to work to the full for the needs of the aggressor: they modernized and de-mothballed the machinery, and worked on its reconstruction. The factories also switched to uninterrupted sewing of the uniform and gear.

Nevertheless, at the beginning of 2023 a huge question arose as to how long Moscow would be able to support its closest ally financially. As it turns out, the bunker Führer cannot support even his own country, and it is becoming extremely costly for him to subsidise vassal regimes as well.

Thus, it is likely that the Russian government will be forced to demand at least a partial repayment of the debt from Minsk within the next six months.