Military Expert: AFU Will Advance In April-May To Reach Crimea

The overall picture is not in favour of Russia.

Russia made ambitious plans to seize the territories of Ukraine and had high hopes for its new offensive in 2023. The invaders have mobilized, connected additional reserves and are conducting an offensive operation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in order to completely capture Donbas. However, the enemy fails to break through the defence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and achieve even tactical success. Russian troops cannot advance due to a lack of forces and means in other axes.

Ukraine is preparing to liberate its territories. In the spring, specialists are expected to come back. They are mastering the skills in Western combat vehicles. Also, the required amount of heavy armoured vehicles will come and training for brigades will be completed giving an opportunity to launch a counteroffensive. The Command of the Defence Forces sets the task of bringing troops to the 1991 border lines.

Andriy Ryzhenko, a reserve first-rank captain, deputy chief of Naval Forces Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2004-2020 and expert of the Center for Defense Strategies, gave an interview for Glavred. He told when the Russian offensive is expected to culminate, made a forecast about the timing of the counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, named the probable axis of the offensive of the Ukrainian army and explained how Ukrainian troops can reach the Crimean peninsula.

– Russia has been conducting an offensive in five axes in eastern Ukraine since February, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine repel all attacks. In your opinion, when will the Russian offensive reach its turning point?

– Russia is conducting intensive offensive operations in the Vuhledar- Kupyansk area. They have been attacking for 1.5 months on a 200 km frontline. There are 360,000 Russian troops in Ukraine today. This is twice as much as last year. According to world intelligence assessments, 90-97% of Russian troops are located on 16.7% of Ukrainian lands. The forces of four military districts - Western, Southern, Central and Eastern - are involved in this grouping.

Russia has used almost all of its reserves. In particular, the enemy threw into battle the 61st Marine Brigade, which is based near the occupied Crimea, as well as the 155th and 40th Brigades, which operate near Vuhledar. This indicates that the Russians are fighting on the last reserves. Pressure is horribly large, but despite all attempts to attack, the pace of the offensive is steadily declining. There are trains with quite old war machinery from all over Russia, including from the central part of Siberia. They are trying to compensate for losses in armoured vehicles. They are also sending to the frontline the reserves that were prepared in Belarus.

Russia does not have very many reserves left. Even Russian media more and more often calls to end the war against Ukraine. Moreover, experienced military experts who served in the General Staff are talking about it.

We are also monitoring the public confrontation between the Wagner PMC and the Russian Armed Forces. The head of the Wagner, Prigozhin, boasts and straightly says that it was he who saved this "special military operation".

Many are now interested in a possible starting point for a counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In my opinion, the most painful blow to the Russian troops in terms of politics, image and military expediency will be the destruction of the so-called land corridor connecting the occupied Crimea with the territory of the Russian Federation through the occupied territories of southern Ukraine. If the operation of the "corridor" that ensures the transportation of goods is disrupted, the provision of the Russian troops in the south and in Crimea will be seriously complicated. The Crimean Bridge will remain the last strong point of the Russian troops' rear support in the south. However, it is possible to hit it, as we saw in October.

It will be difficult to cut the support of the Russian troops in the east of Ukraine, because the Ukrainian-Russian border is large. However, there are options for the collapse of the Russian front in the east. It happened in September last year, when the Kharkiv region was liberated. Now the Russians have more and more soldiers who do not understand what they are doing in Ukraine, and their motivation is in doubt. Untrained mobilized troops are participating in the war instead of professionals. Russian troops may not be able to withstand the pressure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine under these conditions.

In my opinion, the pace of Russia's offensive operation is fading. The enemy tries to fortify its position and more often uses tactical aircraft but to no avail. Considering that the Russians are suffering heavy losses in the war, and the economic situation is deteriorating, the overall picture is not in favour of Russia. Even experts recognize it.

– Still, when can the turning point of this offensive come? Is it possible in March or May? When will it finally become clear that Russia is not capable of launching a so-called "big offensive" and actions that could turn the tide of events in Moscow's favour?

– The Russian troops are holding the initiative at the front. In January, they captured 85 square kilometres of the territory of Ukraine. They are attacking and we are holding the defence. The Russians are moving their units - they concentrated the Wagner PMC troops near Bakhmut, and now they have deployed airborne troops there.

I think that the turning point of the Russian offensive is a matter of a few weeks.

The further developments at the frontline mostly depend on how quickly Ukraine will be able to coordinate the combat operations of new units and reserves that will already be operating Western war machinery and weapons. The Leopard 2 or Challenger 2 tanks are more effective on the battlefield than the Russian T-72s and T-90s. The American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and the Swedish CV 90 will also be a serious help to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. I think it will take some more time to hold out against the Russian offensive after Ukraine completes preparations for the counteroffensive.

The situation remains difficult for us. We are suffering losses. Battalion commander Dmytro "Da Vinci" Kotsyubaylo, the Hero of Ukraine and a fighter of the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade, died near Bakhmut. There are other losses among our military officers. It is necessary to withstand a few weeks and after that, there will be certain developments.

– Officials and military experts have repeatedly spoken about a possible huge Russian offensive. There were such ideas like Moscow would soon use a strategic reserve of 150-200 thousand troops. Thus, do you think that Russia can't launch a large-scale offensive anymore?

– Russia keeps its reserves along the borders of Ukraine and in Belarus. However, their military forces are dispersed. If we are talking about the reserves of 150,000 troops, then we must remember that since the beginning of this year, they have already lost about 50,000 troops. Taking into account the wounded, the losses reach 200,000 troops.

The question of Moscow's announcement of a second wave of partial mobilization remains open. Nevertheless, the preparation of new troops will take several months.

– Will the new wave of mobilization be effective?

– Generally, Russia can fulfil the mobilization tasks. However, the Russians have a very serious personnel crisis: they lack junior commanders, officers, platoon, company and battalion commanders. They have a difficult situation with war machinery, equipment and funds.

Unlike Ukraine, which will receive weapons that contribute to the effective conduct of modern warfare, Russia, at best, buys equipment copied from Western models.

– What do you think, when and in what terms is it possible to conduct a counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? If the Russian offensive stalls in just a few weeks, could Ukraine's military operation take place in May or June?

– Looking at the pace of arms supplies to Ukraine, we can conclude that a Ukrainian offensive is possible in May.

– How does the issue of the supply of combat aircraft affect the timing of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?

– Aircraft are half the battle, but it's necessary to fix all the issues. There are two options for solving the problem.

The first way is the supply of Soviet aircraft. Southeast European countries can do it. They can provide Ukraine with dozens of combat aircraft.

The second option provides for the installation of Western missiles on MiG-29 fighter aircraft. We have seen that the fighter can operate with AGM-88 HARM missiles. The issue of integrating the MiG-29 with the AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, with 60 to 150 kilometres range, is currently being developed. This is the best option for air combat.

It would be ideal to get the F-16 fighter aircraft. However, the decision to transfer aviation depends on geopolitical issues. The West is supplying Ukraine with weapons to deter Russian troops and force Moscow to at least withdraw its forces from the occupied territories.

There is recent information that the Western world did not provide Ukraine with ATACMS missiles in order to deter Russia from acquiring missiles from Iran. Perhaps this is because politics involves certain compromises.

I'd like to recall that the beginning of the discussion about the counteroffensive operation was an interview with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny to The Economist British news agency in December last year. Commander Zaluzhny is not a very public person, but they decided to clearly name the list of military equipment that the Armed Forces need with the help of the prominent news agency. Probably, such a step was the only tool to show the position of Ukraine to the Western world.

I believe that since then the active preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the counteroffensive has begun. Ukraine must prepare it very well and create operational conditions for a successful result. I assume that the fighting that is being fought in the sector from Vuhledar to Kupyansk is used to exhaust the Russian troops. It's more profitable for us to defend ourselves In this situation, and the enemy suffers significant losses. But such actions require effort, and Ukraine, unfortunately, suffers losses too.

The situation in Ukraine remains difficult, but we are working on the reserve development and obtaining weapons. We have been receiving these armored vehicles For the last 2 weeks.

I think we have to hold out for a few more weeks. Active operations of our troops are likely in April, the end of April or in May. Weather conditions are also an important factor in the counteroffensive.

Heavy armoured vehicles are already coming to Ukraine. Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov clearly explained to us the procedure for the formation of new tank units: we will receive at least 2 battalions of the Leopard 2 tanks, as well as 6-7 battalions, which will consist of the Leopard 1 armoured vehicles. The American Abrams and British Challengers are expected to come. London will supply twice more as previously promised. Also, Kyiv will be provided with some of the old Soviet tanks, modernized with night vision systems.

I believe Ukraine will get a lot of heavy combat vehicles that will be able to fight enemy tanks. The command will form certain units, and then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go on a counteroffensive.

– Many in Ukraine are discussing the liberation of occupied Crimea. Earlier you said that the military operation would be difficult, also because there are natural obstacles on the way to the peninsula. How could the Crimean peninsula be liberated?

– I like the idea of the liberation of Crimea proposed by the former commander of the US Army in Europe, retired General Ben Hodges. [The plan provides for constant long-range strikes on Russian troops and their facilities in Crimea and the destruction of enemy logistics, including the Crimean Bridge. As a result, the enemy troops should be isolated and leave the peninsula - Ed.]

Indeed, entering Crimea through the Isthmus of Perekop and conducting hostilities in the southern part of the peninsula in the mountains of the Crimean Ridge is a difficult task.

Let's recall the battles for Crimea during the Crimean War and World War II.

During the Crimean War, the coalition of England and France had a significant advantage over the troops of the Russian Empire. In particular, the coalition had 4-9 times more ships and 5 times more infantry. However, she had to siege Sevastopol for 350 days.

During the Second World War, the Nazi invaders fought for 250 days to completely occupy Crimea. Sevastopol was liberated on May 8, 1944, and it also took time for the Soviet Union to liberate the peninsula. I’d like to mention that Kyiv was liberated six months earlier.

However, modern technologies should affect warfare. High-power precision weapons are capable of depriving the enemy of command posts and logistical chains. Therefore, in the event of an effective counteroffensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to cut the logistics of the Russian troops, which follow the path of the “land corridor”, and reach the Perekop Isthmus.

The Perekop Isthmus is a complicated area for combat vehicles to pass through. The Russians took advantage of some factors at the beginning of a full-scale war when they left Crimea and captured the south of Ukraine. We are talking about unexpectedness and fire impact. Also, I think there was also hybrid pressure on officials because there were not many Ukrainian troops there. This led to the fact that the Russian troops reached Kakhovka in 7 hours.

If the Ukrainian Defence Forces manage to approach the administrative borders of Crimea, they will advance at least as far as occupied Mariupol. The Russians built fortifications near Tokmak and Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia Region. It will be easier to go further after overcoming these fortifications. The logistics support line for the Russian troops in the south will be cut after reaching Crimea, and then it will be possible to strike with the help of Western high-precision weapons in order to neutralize control systems, positions of Russian troops and important military facilities.

The Crimean bridge will remain the last logistical artery for Russian troops in such a situation. The ferry service does not work very well, it has limited capacity.

Recently, the Russians have dug trenches all over the western coast of Crimea. The pits were dug 10-15 meters from the water's edge, it seems that they were going to fish there. In general, such steps can only be effective for intercepting sabotage groups. But if we are talking about a classic landing operation, the trench should be a few hundred meters from the coast. It's better to put mines and anti-tank hedgehogs in the areas ahead of the trenches. However, they dug trenches hundreds of kilometres long. Quite an interesting idea.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Command of the Joint Forces Operations Development will plan military operations according to NATO standards. They will take everything into account. Ukraine's advantages are Western weapons and, hopefully, motivated personnel striving to liberate their land, as well as new combat tactics. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been trained abroad. Even the Hungarians are already training our medical specialists. The training affects a person's worldview, and this whole situation with Western support was very unexpected for Russia.

– What should Ukraine do with the Crimean Bridge? Should it be damaged or completely destroyed? We understand that after the explosion in October last year, the road logistics of Russian troops suffered significantly, but there is almost no further information regarding its operation for military needs. How does the Crimean Bridge function now in terms of providing for the Russian occupation forces?

– The Russians repaired two directions of the Crimean Bridge roadway at the end of February. Repairs have been lasting since October last year. The next phase of work is underway now. As far as I know, the road is operating well. Nevertheless, the Russians introduced serious restrictions for trucks after the explosion.

As for the Crimean Bridge railway, one way was seriously damaged in a section of about 300 meters. It is necessary to completely replace the entire railway. They are planning to do this before July 1 this year. The railway plays a significant role in transferring heavy armoured vehicles, personnel and all ammunition.

It is difficult to say what to do with the Crimean Bridge. We need to look at further developments. I am a Crimean native and I know that even the Germans during World War II failed to successfully build a bridge across the Kerch Strait. The bridge was built in a seismic zone and the supports of the bridge are located in potentially dangerous places even in civilian terms.

In any case, we need the plan to block the logistics support of the Russian troops, which works with the help of the Crimean bridge. The object is very large, and the project of further actions should be carefully developed.

– When and according to what scenario may Russia's war against Ukraine end? Should we talk about approaching the 1991 borders by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or should we first think about the return of territories to the borders as of February 24, 2022?

– I think if we reach the borders of February 24, it will only be a temporary stop in the war. Russia "legalized" at least the occupied Donbas as "DPR" and "LPR". They “integrated” the captured Crimea a long time ago…

– The February 24 borders: is this a scenario for freezing the war?

– Yes, it will be a frozen war scenario. In this case, Russia will demand the lifting of sanctions, it will build up the economy, set up channels for the supply of dual-use goods through third countries, and after a certain time, in the medium term, may again continue the war against Ukraine.

This situation will mean that part of our territories remains under occupation. This will affect the country's prospects on the way to the EU and NATO.

Many leading modern, economically and technologically advanced states understand what Russia is doing in Ukraine and support us. Also, these countries are aware that the current processes in the Russian Federation must be stopped. Otherwise, Russian aggression may spread to the Baltic states or the states of Southeast Europe. Then there is the risk of big problems because there are other obligations that require the serious participation of the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union.

Ukraine can regain its territorial integrity within the 1991 borders. The West accepted our position. Although, let me remind you, a day after the outbreak of the full-scale war, there was no clearly defined position of the Western world at all. After Bucha, everyone adheres to the point of view that Ukraine should liberate its territories and achieve victory in the war with Russia. The successful counteroffensives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkiv and Kherson demonstrated that Ukraine can do this. The G7 countries are supporting the goal of the Ukrainian people. Therefore, we are to make the most of our opportunities.