FT: Russian Defences May Crumble Fast

The AFU are capable of breaking through to the rear of the Russian troops.

Fighting during the Ukrainian counteroffensive is likely to be heavy, writes the Financial Times, citing forecasts by military officials and analysts.

All decisions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine must be coordinated. Adding to the difficulties is the Ukrainians’ lack of air superiority to cover Western, according to the Financial Times.

“Russian aviation will be able to squash Ukraine’s specialist engineering vehicles," said Nick Gunnell, a former officer in Britain’s Royal Engineers who has extensive experience of breaching operations.

“The classic approach in a land offensive is to break out into the enemy rear, in one area or several, and deliver a concentrated blow against the enemy’s centre of gravity,” said Ben Barry, a former British armoured infantry battalion commander. “Successful examples without air superiority are rare,” he said, and cited Israel’s land attack on Egyptian positions in 1973 during the Yom Kippur war.

The Russian defences typically consist of a minefield, followed by lines of pyramid-shaped concrete bollards, also known as "dragon's teeth", then another minefield, a line of trenches and dugouts 400 meters wide, and anti-tank ditches after another 500 meters.

Recently leaked assessments of the US military indicate their doubts about the readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to break through such defences, both in terms of personnel training and in terms of war machinery and ammunition. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been underestimated more than once.

“If the Ukrainian attack is hard and fast and gets behind the Russians, the frontline will unravel and the Russians will run . . . just as they did during the counter-offensive around Kharkiv,” said Glen Grant, a former British army officer and adviser to the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada’s defence committee.

If that happens, then all the trenches and defences that the Russians have prepared will be useless, allowing more Ukrainian forces to pour through the cleared gap. “It is an old maxim that undefended earthworks don’t kill you. And then the Ukrainians will be able to just keep going for as long as their plans and logistics last,” Grant added