Foreign Policy: First 24 Hours Of AFU Counteroffensive To Be Decisive

US names key success factors

The first 24 hours of the upcoming AFU counteroffensiveare likely to be decisive. To succeed, the Ukrainian army needs to breach the defenses of the Russian troops, advance quickly into the enemy's rear and threaten Russian military headquarters and supply centres to increase panic and shackle the Russian military leadership. Tactical surprise, battlefield leadership and fighting spirit may be the best options.

Stefan Gadi, SRF at the International Institute for Strategic Studies on Cyber Capabilities and Future Conflicts, said.

Foreign Policy, a US foreign policy journal, published the scholar's forecast. He suggests that the first 24 hours of AFU counteroffensive will likely be "Ukraine's longest day".

He recalls the experience of previous wars, when the initial phase of an attack often determined the subsequent nature of the next confrontation, deciding who would win and establishing the strategic impact of the offensive.

Franz-Stephan Gadi notes that only the Ukrainian army has the information whether the AFU holds the military and technical conditions to secure an advantage on the battlefield. All statements about where the Ukrainian army may strike are only speculation.

The scientist believes that the counteroffensive will be successful if the Ukrainian army manages to restrain the Russian military leadership and spread panic among the rank-and-file of the Russian occupants. Such steps would further help to "avoid exhaustion in the first hours of a future offensive".

In addition, the expert believes that factors such as tactical surprise, a demonstration of leadership on the battlefield and fighting spirit might also serve best.

"This scenario involves Ukrainian armoured columns breaking through Russian defences, rapidly advancing into the Russian rear and threatening command and control nodes such as military headquarters and supply centres, increasing panic and paralysis," stresses Franz-Stephan Gadi.

He notes, however, that it is unclear whether it is enough for long-term strategic gains, "let alone a victory in the war" for Ukraine.

AFU counteroffensive

National Security and Defence Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov earlier stated that the decision to launch a counteroffensive will be taken by the AFU General Staff. Danilov says that everything will be decided at the last moment. Ukraine has several scenarios for a military operation.

Bloomberg journalists published a material which says that the Ukrainian defence forces might launch a counteroffensive in May. Ukrainian troops will probably attack in several directions at once.

An American interlocutor suggested that the AFU might advance 30 km in the Melitopol direction in order to take fire control of the so-called Russian "land corridor" to the seized Crimea.

The Institute for the Study of War believes that the aggressor Russia fears a counteroffensive in the Bakhmut direction as well. The analysts believe that Russian airborne troops have been moved to Bakhmut to deter a possible AFU counteroffensive.