Natallia Radzina: Putin Knows About Tendencies In Belarusian Army

The majority of Belarusians are on the side of Ukraine.

Yesterday, May 21, Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website Natallia Radzina became a guest at the studio of the Priamyi Ukrainian TV channel. Peter Zalmayev was the host. The Ukrainian journalist noted that he had known Natallia for 23 years. The Belarusian journalist took with her to the studio a book by Andrei Sannikov, the leader of the European Belarus Civil Campaign, the book is called “My Story: Belarusian Amerikanka or Elections Under Dictatorship”.

At the beginning of the show, Peter Zalmayev remembered the Day of Belarusian Political Prisoners. Speaking about Belarusian prisoners of conscience, the Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website noted that she is a former political prisoner and therefore understands the importance of solidarity:

– A huge number of people are in Belarusian prisons today. The arrests that hit the country after the 2020 elections have not stopped for a single day for almost three years now. Really, there are from 8,000 to 10,000 political prisoners in Belarus.

The International Day of Solidarity with Political Prisoners in Belarus is marked on May 21, because political prisoner Vitold Ashurak was killed in prison two years ago. He did not reach his 50th birthday. He was a real patriot of Belarus, who was imprisoned after participating in the 2020 protests. He was simply beaten by the guards and he was not the only political prisoner who was actually killed in Belarusian prisons.

It is not known how many people died there, if we do not know that they were political prisoners, if their names were little known, then dozens could die over these few years. In fact, what is happening in Belarusian prisons is frightening. It is important to remember these people and think about how to free them. Ukraine is also interested in this - to increase pressure on the Lukashenka regime. I will not tire of repeating that only a free democratic Belarus will be the guarantor of Ukraine's security.

Natallia Radzina noted that Lukashenka began to kill not in 2020, but back in 1999, when opposition leaders were killed in Belarus: First Vice Speaker of the Supreme Council of Belarus of the 13th Convocation Viktar Hanchar, the former Minister of Internal Affairs Yury Zacharanka, businessman and public figure Anatol Krasouski and journalist Dzmitry Zavadski:

– There were many more strange deaths among politicians, journalists, and experts after 1999. Aleh Bebenin, the founder of the Charter97.org website, died in 2010. Unfortunately, the international community reacted to this extremely poorly.

I think that not everyone in Ukraine knew about what was going on in Belarus. It seems to me that this happened also because the Ukrainian media insufficiently covered the situation. It is very good that now there is a focus on Belarus. There is awareness and understanding of how dangerous this dictatorial regime is in our country. February 24, 2022, proved that Belarus cannot be any partner and ally for Ukraine as long as the Lukashenka regime rules there.

Peter Zalmayev also touched upon the dictator's health condition. Speaking about what will happen if Lukashenka dies tomorrow, the Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website said:

– What will change in the "LPR" [the so-called Luhansk People's Republic - Ed.] if Pasechnikov dies? Unfortunately, this is about the same situation so far, and the reason is the huge influence of the Kremlin on Belarus. Lukashenka is a puppet. All Belarusian training grounds are involved in the training of Russia's mobilized troops. Tens of thousands of people have been on the territory of Belarus and have been trained over the past 1.5 years. We know that more mobilized troops are expected.

They can renew missile attacks from the territory of Belarus at any moment. This was happening throughout the past year, and even in December, Russian aircraft were launching missiles after rising from the territory of Belarus. Drones are still flying. The Belarusian army can enter this war at any moment if there is an urgent need for it.

Nevertheless, Natallia Radzina noted that most of the Belarusian troops do not want to fight, and do not want to take up arms against the Ukrainians. Putin is also aware of the tendencies in the Belarusian army:

– They think that if they still have to cross the border with Ukraine, they will surrender. In this situation, Lukashenka and Putin understand that the Belarusian army is not an assistant to the Russian Federation in this war. They can be used in a really critical situation.

Answering the question about whether the security forces and the army will turn their weapons against Lukashenka if they are forced to go to war, the Belarusian journalist said:

- I would very much like this to happen, but I know that quite a lot of Russian officers serve in the Belarusian army today. They were just sent to serve in the Armed Forces of Belarus precisely to prevent such a scenario. They often command Belarusian units. We are told by the military that if they go to Ukraine, they will go under the command of Russian officers. It is because the Russian authorities realize that such a scenario is possible.

Peter Zalmayev mentioned that political strategist Michael Sheitelman insists on a scenario that if Lukashenka is gone, then the question will be who will get to Minsk earlier - Putin or Tsikhanouskaya. Natallia Radzina commented on this scenario:

– I am convinced that in Belarus, in the event of turbulence and a situation where there is an opportunity for democratic forces to come to power in a revolutionary way, it will be necessary to create a transitional government from different political forces as soon as possible.

Many opposition leaders are in prison today. They must be released immediately and these leaders - representatives of various political forces - must enter this transitional government. Of course, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya can also join it.

The next step is to hold new parliamentary elections under the 1994 Constitution. Further, the parliament is to amend the electoral legislation and we are to hold presidential elections. This scenario, I think, will be the most democratic.

The Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website is sure that most of the Belarusian people are on the side of Ukraine in the war with the Russian Federation:

– Yes, we have a dictatorship, people cannot actively speak out, go to protests or hold protest actions in support of Ukraine. You should understand that in Belarus people are arrested for yellow and blue colours. All segments of society are subjected to repression.

An Orthodox priest was arrested a few months ago for having a sticker of solidarity with Ukraine on a car. Not to mention the fact that people are grabbed not only for publications in social media in support of Ukraine but also for likes under such publications. But the sentiments are still pro-Ukrainian.

As a journalist, I have a fairly large network of contacts and I don't need a sociological service to measure moods. I can say that at least 80% are for Ukraine. There are few pro-Russian-minded people, those who are on the fringe and do not risk expressing their views in stores or public transport. Yes, they are on Belarusian TV channels today, and they communicate all the rhetorics of Russian propaganda, but they are afraid to express this point of view among the people.

Speaking about the 2020 events, Natallia Radzina noted that this was the first stage of the Revolution:

– In fact, there were protests in all cities of Belarus. Unfortunately, the regime was able to resist due to the support of the Kremlin and, let's be frank, because of the illiterate and irresponsible actions of the so-called leaders of the Belarusian opposition, for example, Tsikhanouskaya and her team, I generally call them the "foam of the Revolution”.

Sure, they are not real leaders. They offered people an absolutely failed strategy: go out on weekends and work the rest of the week. They proposed this option, which eventually led to a gradual “drain” of the protest potential and the suppression of protests, instead of holding protests every day, calling a strike throughout the country.

As a result, we have from 8,000 to 10,000 political prisoners in the country. It is difficult to give an exact figure, but there are figures that indicate that up to 300,000 Belarusians have left the country over the past three years. The process continues.

This is an extremely difficult situation, but the most important thing is that people did not begin to love Lukashenka in these three years. If in those days 80-90% were against him, now the figures are about the same.