Political Scientist On Situation In Belgorod Region: This Is Decent Trolling

The Putin regime is incapable of defending its territory.

Russian volunteer formations entered the territory of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation for the third time. Local authorities allegedly prepared for such attacks for a long time, building fortifications. How did it happen that these units entered Russian territory quite easily?

The Charter97.org website addressed this question to the Slovak political scientist, the President of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO) in Slovakia (Bratislava) Grigorij Mesežnikov.

— What happened should be considered in the context of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Russia has so far acted as if no matter what it does in Ukraine, there will be no substantive response to its aggressive actions. They bombed and shelled Ukraine from their territory, especially from the territory of the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions. In general, these are the territories from which Russia is waging this war of conquest. So, I emphasize, they believed that there would be no answer at all.

In fact, as it turned out now, they were not prepared for such operations. As far as I know, there are no military capacities in these areas, there is not enough potential. What they say about “preparatory work”, about digging “trenches” and other things — this is all a disguise for the local population. In order to reassure the residents so that they do not think that the state is not able to protect them.

Now we are talking about the Russian volunteer battalion and its entry into the territory of Russia, but I think that if the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for some tactical or operational reasons, needed to conduct an operation in this part of Russian territory, they would easily cope with their tasks.

What is happening now is, of course, the consequences of the war. I think that this event will affect at least part of the population of the Russian Federation. Russia started the war in full confidence that it would win, in fact, there is no victory, and now the war is coming to the territory of Russia, regardless of whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine participate in it or not. My opinion is that they are not involved in this operation. Ukraine behaves very carefully, and the people who are now in the territory of the Belgorod region are Russian citizens.

What is happening in the Belgorod region now diverts Russia's attention from the war itself, it needs to somehow strengthen itself. I assume that these people came to the Belgorod region from Ukrainian territory. Among other things, it is also a very good trolling. Russia tried to create “people’s republics” on the territory of Ukraine, and they somehow succeeded with two, but now all this Russian narrative is returning to the Russian Federation in the form of the alleged establishment of the “Belgorod People’s Republic”. Here one can only smile at how Ukraine has designed it now.

— Russian propagandists reacted chaotically to this event. Why is there no coordinated response?

— I think that they are, to put it mildly, surprised, and maybe even shocked. In their view, Russia should have won, if not immediately, as planned, in three or four days, then in any case, the final victory should, in their opinion, be on the side of Russia, but now it turns out that this is by no means the case.

The observed panic in the Russian propaganda media is also connected with the fact that Ukraine is systematically preparing for its offensive. The units of the Ukrainian army receive new weapons, which causes great concern in the Russian Federation.

All this time, they, Russian propagandists, have been focusing on the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and now it turns out that even on the territory of the Russian Federation there are some people, in their understanding, “little green men”.

Ukraine behaves very carefully, does not give a reason to accuse itself of the fact that it is its Armed Forces that are conducting operations in the Belgorod region. Although, in my opinion, Ukraine has the right to conduct any military operations against Russia. It has every right to any response to Russian aggression, and the fact that the West is now softening its position on the use of its weapons by Ukraine is very significant. What Russia has been doing since 2014 is a complete violation of all norms of international law.

By the way, it is clear that the military significance of what is happening in the Belgorod region is limited, it is unlikely that Belgorod can be liberated or occupied by a small group, but this undoubtedly has political significance. The Russian Federation proves unable to defend itself from external military influence. They constantly talk about the “threat of an attack by the West”, and then they were attacked by the “little green men”.

It can be said that the aggression against Ukraine is, if not yet a final defeat, then already now an obvious loss for Russia, and this regime is not capable of truly defending its territory.

— Several Belarusian volunteer units are fighting in Ukraine. Do you think Lukashenka is trying on the scenario of the Belgorod region?

— I am sure that Lukashenka is afraid. I think that such considerations turned Lukashenka away from the fact that the Belarusian armed forces took a direct part in the aggression against Ukraine.

He feared that it might happen that the Ukrainian troops, together with the Belarusian volunteer units, would begin to win this war. Naturally, they would have ousted Lukashenka's troops brought into Ukraine, which, by the way, could themselves join the Ukrainian army and go on the offensive against Minsk.

I don’t claim that this would definitely happen, but I think that he lost this option in his head.

As far as I know, the Belarusian fighters fighting on the side of Ukraine showed themselves very skillfully in military operations against the Russian invaders. They can indeed be a serious threat to the Lukashenka regime.

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