Lukashenka Wakes Up In Cold Sweat

Does the dictator see nightmares about the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment?

Does Lukashenka see the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment in his nightmares?

More than sure, yes. Although Lukashenka himself does not fully understand why this is so, in view of his deep distance from military affairs, his instincts do not fail him. Why is that? I'll try to explain.

For several days in a row, I was asked the question of whether the Belarusians, now fighting in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, have the opportunity to repeat the raid of the RVC and the Legion in the Belgorod region, but in Belarus. And my answer was simple. Now — no, but after the end of the war in Ukraine — definitely! Moreover, with the aim of overthrowing Lukashenka.

And, most importantly, it is quite realistic and achievable for those who set themselves the goal to overthrow the dictator and liberate their homeland from the oppression of the totalitarian regime, and not just banal walking with balloons and flags along the avenues. And this will be the difference with the performance of 2020.

However, let’s omit these and many other points, but let's talk about those who will be the future opposition to Belarus. Moreover, we will talk from the standpoint not of probability and theory, but we will evaluate the chances for the scenario of the return of the fighting Belarusians to Belarus and the overthrow of the dictator.

First, a few numbers.

The Kastus Kalinouski Regiment has about 1,000 fighters. In fact, this is 2 battalion-tactical brigades. In addition, there are other divisions in Ukraine formed from Belarusians, which are not often heard in the information space. That is, the real number is greater.

What about the Belarusian army? And there, from strength, conditionally combat-ready units with a stretch of about 14 thousand personnel. Then there is the question of the border. This issue is very important, given the recent events on the border between Russia and Ukraine, in particular, what happened in the Belgorod region.

On the border of Belarus and Ukraine, about 2 thousand personnel are located in the following formations:

— 38th Separate Air Assault Brigade in the area of the village of Vuzhava and Pinsk, Brest region;

— 5th Special Forces Separate Brigade — Ivanava, Brest region and Prybalovichy, Homel region;

— 350th Airborne Brigade of the 103rd Separate Airborne Brigade — Lelchytsy, Brahin and Zyabrauka-2, Homel region.

— 51st Artillery Brigade — Homel.

At the same time, the length of the border between Belarus and Ukraine is 1,084 km. That is, if 17 thousand bodies on the border of Russia with the unoccupied part of Ukraine, 700 km long, could not prevent a breakthrough along the 40 km front and 7 km deep, will 2 thousand paper soldiers be able to protect 1 thousand km?

Thus, we conclude that penetration into the territory of Belarus will not be difficult.

The next question is action. And here, it should be understood that without the support of the population of Belarus, the scenario has a lower percentage of implementation. Protests, people taking to the streets — this is absolutely necessary.

Of course, to suppress the protests, Lukashenka's repressive machine uses its resources — the law enforcement agencies. And here the power factor of the fighting Belarusians comes into play. Namely combatants, and not accustomed to beating up unarmed protesters, or breeches flaunting at parades.

Belarusians taking part in the war in Ukraine have something that the entire Belarusian army does not have — real combat experience. And it is they who will be the main support of the protests, in opposition to Lukashenka's security forces. Especially in the format of urban battles, without which, alas, nothing will work.

At the same time, in the format of urban battles, the ossified and archaic Belarusian army will be absolutely useless. First, again, due to lack of experience. Secondly, their lack of funds for urban combat, which is a consequence of the Soviet system's legacy.

It is noteworthy that when Lukashenka's security forces see a real forceful rebuff, they will very quickly sing the song “Army with the people!”, “OMON with the people!”, “Police with the people!” in an attempt to save their own skin. The defeat of the regime will be inevitable and Lukashenka will rush to Rostov.

Thus, breaking through the border, controlling the main border cities, in combination with the protest wave, will create all the necessary conditions for overthrowing the Lukashenka regime.

But this will be after the end of the war in Ukraine. In the meantime, let the dictator wake up in a cold sweat.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, site.ua