‘Lukashenka’s Security Service Will Scatter After The First Bang’

The Political scientist believes that the Russian Federation can sacrifice the Belarusian dictator.

Putin's Press Service reported that allegedly the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the Kremlin on the night of May 3.

There are various versions of what happened: a special operation by the FSB, an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or some kind of internal Russian conflict.

Which version is the most realistic? The Charter97.org website spoke to Belarusian political scientist Dzmitry Balkunets on this matter.

– Judging by the videos, which were presented many hours after the attack, all this resembles a certain sham. If this were real, the incident would be reported promptly, within a few minutes or an hour, rather than waiting for the middle of the next day. In one of the videos, some people are crawling on this roof and doing something, or they are going to extinguish a fire, or something else. All this, of course, is reminiscent of the staging.

Moreover, I do not see any reason to launch these drones. If we are talking about some of the parties wanting to burn something there, then what is the reason? Well, the roof will burn, what's next? Nothing will happen.

It seems to me that this sham was organized to show a beautiful bright picture for further action.

For example, Russian propaganda and Russian political figures say they are going to strike at the decision-making centers in Kyiv. This story demonstrated publicly opens up certain opportunities for the Russian authorities to explain the reasons for the strikes on the presidential administration of Ukraine or some other objects in Kyiv. It is possible that this could happen.

– Let's talk about how this incident affects the Belarusian regime. Was Lukashenka scared?

– Lukashenka also did such things more than once, even the incident in Machulishchy is the story of the same nature. I think that Lukashenka is not the person who will be afraid in this situation. He is well aware of what happened.

And if we consider the version that it was a real attack, then this will have the same effect on the Russian authorities. They will continue and possibly intensify strikes against targets in Ukraine. Medvedev's statement that "Russia plans to eliminate Zelensky," shows that it was not some kind of mythical drone that scared the Russian Federation. They understand where they are now in terms of war, so they will take some efforts and measures in order to begin the liquidation of the chosen leaders of Ukraine.

This will have very serious consequences, and I do not rule out the possible use of nuclear weapons by Putin, including from the territory of Belarus. Therefore, the risk is very high, in any case, Lukashenka is an accomplice in the war that he, together with Putin, unleashed against Ukraine. They will answer before history for their crimes, at least before the citizens. I am totally convinced that an international tribunal will be established in the near future. It will hold accountable these people, at least in absentia, and maybe some of them personally.

– We see quite unambiguous and serious sabotage in Russia recently. In particular, a Belarusian train was derailed a couple of days ago.

– Obviously, these stories are already more realistic, not filmed from several angles, but shown in fact. When some objects explode or burn, they provide information about it literally within tens of minutes, and do not wait half a day to roll out a press release on the Kremlin's website. The developments in the border areas are real stories of resistance, when some people are trying to stop the war.

– Why, then, is Belarusian propaganda reluctant to talk about these events? Still, Lukashenka promised a “tough response” if something like this happens.

– It's the issue of undermining all sorts of railway tracks and train cars that seriously worries Lukashenka. I think that Lukashenka assesses these risks, considering that there were Belarusians in the brigade of one of the trains.

By the way, I want to draw your attention to the fact that over the past year and a half, Lukashenka no longer appears in carnival military costumes with similar mummery decorations, as he likes to do. This suggests that he is saddened by what is happening.

Things didn't go as Lukashenka wanted. He and Putin, they planned to take over Ukraine in three days. Lukashenka, apparently, wanted to receive some kind of reward for this, some shoulder straps. Putin should have cut off another piece of territory for him. And now he will have to answer for what he did, so he is not happy about that. It is obvious that the Belarusian propaganda will hush it up so as not to frighten the people.

It is also worth noting that the Russian authorities and state TV channels did not show their audience the real drone attack. They simply reported in general terms about what had happened, but did not show the actual attack. After all, it's likely to reach some Western public, to show that the Kremlin is under attack.

I do not rule out that a terrorist act may be committed on the territory of Belarus before any decisions on inflicting significant strikes on Ukraine or on the use of nuclear weapons. This threat has appeared since the beginning of the military campaign. Therefore, here Lukashenka can become a victim of such a terrorist attack. At some point, they may even liquidate him and blame Ukraine for it, so he is a walking dead.

In fact, no one needs Lukashenka for a long time and there is no point in supporting him. Therefore, if they have to sacrifice their "dear friend Aliaksandr Ryhoravich", no one in the Kremlin will be really upset. He will be sacrificed. At war as at war. Lukashenka is the same soldier as others who are thrown into hell at the front. For the Kremlin, this would be a great story - to eliminate Lukashenka, to order another force to remove him, very loudly, with some kind of 'bangs', "fireworks", drones and other means. Therefore, Lukashenka is upset that he can become such a victim.

– Will the security forces be able to protect him?

– They will scatter at the first bang. If some kind of drone actually flew to Belarus, I mean a full-fledged combat drone, and not a cheap Chinese one, then it would easily come from the territory of Ukraine to his residence, and it would also return back. Therefore, there is no way for Lukashenka to be secure.