Ukrainian Political Scientist: Prigozhin Will Leave For Africa, Not Belarus

Now in Muscovy will begin the "fight of bulldogs under the carpet."

Well-known Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research Volodymyr Fesenko believes that the leader of Wagner PMC Evgeny Prigozhin will leave for Africa, not Belarus. He expressed this opinion on Facebook:

“Recent events in Russia will have a variety of consequences.

We will see some in the coming days, in particular personnel decisions, including those for the Ministry of Defense. Other consequences will surface later.

But the most important thing is what happened to Putin and Prigozhin. Prigozhin has actually nullified himself as an influential and popular subject of Russian politics. And Putin devalued himself, showing his political and administrative weakness.

After all, the problem of Prigozhin was solved not by Putin, but by representatives of the Kremlin (Patrushev, Vaino), people from Putin's entourage (Dyumin), with the participation of Lukashenka. Putin promised to solve the problem of PMC “Wagner” by force, and had to negotiate with Prigozhin, step down to a formal compromise.

This is the second obvious fiasco of Putin. The first was last year — after the military defeats in Ukraine. Now — after the “compromise” with Prigozhin.

But if the problem can be solved without Putin, why Putin then? I think that this idea will increasingly come to the minds of various Russian leaders and representatives of the elites.

Weak tsars are not respected in Russia and end badly.

And forget about Prigozhin and PMC Wagner. Some “Wagnerites” will most likely go with Prigozhin to Africa. It is more profitable for Prigozhin there than to fight against Ukraine, and much safer than in Belarus.

Most of the “Wagnerites” will be disbanded and scattered among various units.

The version that Prigozhin will lead the “Wagnerites” from Belarus to Kyiv is conspiracy nonsense. It is unacceptable for the Kremlin to keep the Wagner PMC in its previous form, including on the territory of Belarus. This is both dangerous (what if they decide to repeat it?) and inappropriate.

I think that now the Russian Federation will impose a general taboo on private armies. The Kadyrovites will remain the only exception.

We will observe other consequences of the events of June 24 in the Russian Federation, including personal ones.

Now a show which Churchill would have called “a bulldog fighting under a rug” will begin in Muscovy.”