Christo Grozev: ‘Prigozhin Will Either Be Dead Or Start A Second Coup In Half A Year’

Other triggers could happen.

In six months, head of the Russian private military company Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin will either die or start another rebellion.

Such a forecast was made by investigative journalist Christo Grozev in an interview with the Financial Times. He said he suspected a coup attempt the night before as they had recorded an “explosion” of phone traffic between high-ranking Russian military personnel.

“Putin spoke on TV and called Prigozhin a traitor. Everyone knows what they do with “traitors”, and Putin hasn’t done that. He wants to see him dead. He can’t do that yet. In half a year, Prigozhin will either be dead or there will be a second coup,” he said.

Grozev also said that he does not think that any part of the Russian elite, with the exception of the military-industrial complex, sees the sense in the Russian war against Ukraine. In his opinion, “they’re not speaking out because of a “prisoner's dilemma”, they don’t want to be the first or the only.”

The journalist believes that Putin can be overthrown in two ways. “Either the prisoner’s dilemma can be broken, or they will just get rid of him through a better coordinated coup. They don’t have that yet among the oligarchs, or with any of the ministers, or the FSB. But it is unpalatable for the rest of the elite to live in a North Korea 2.1 with their bank accounts frozen. Other triggers could happen. Say a reversal of fortunes on the frontline,” Grozev added.