Andrei Sannikov: They Can Use Prigozhin Against Lukashenka

Where there is more production, there will be the leader of the Wagner Group.

The presence of the Wagner Group in Belarus poses a real danger to Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Preventive measures are needed, including strikes on militant positions. Andrei Sannikov, the former Belarusian presidential candidate of the Republic of Belarus and the leader of the European Belarus Civil Campaign, expressed this opinion in an interview with Voice of America.

– Does the presence of the Wagner troops in Belarus pose a threat to regional security?

– This extremely dangerous element appeared on the borders of Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and Latvia. I name four states because all of them are in danger. We already hear that Putin and his propagandists are talking openly about Poland, about the Suwałki Gap - this is a vulnerable spot that has always been identified by politicians and the military because Russia has plans to cut off the Baltic from the rest of Europe by breaking through a narrow corridor to Kaliningrad. And Russia has been cherishing this idea since 2009. It was the year of the exercises in Belarus, where such plans appeared. That's why Prigozhin and his thugs are mentioned along with the Suwałki Gap and Poland. Therefore, this course of events is extremely, extremely dangerous of course, and it is worth more than only paying attention. It is time to take preventive measures, up to strikes against the location of these criminal groups.

– So do you think that all these provocations on the border with the participation of the Belarusian security forces and the Wagnerites are linked directly to the Suwałki Gap?

– I think the provocations and threats to Europe are directly associated, because Putin makes no secret of his goals - the collapse of Europe, that is, to destroy the ties that exist in Europe. Well, he had goals to negotiate one by one with major European countries before. That's all he cares about. He still does not perceive the Baltic countries as separate nations. And of course, it is also connected.

Moreover, you may know that two Wagnerites were arrested in Poland. They were pasting and spreading Wagner Group propaganda. That’s recruitment, an attempt to recruit is not only in Belarus. Well, you see, they’ve come to Poland. In addition, they were associated with intelligence activities, according to Polish media. And this is already dangerous. And if there is such active intelligence and if these Wagnerites are revealed here, in Poland, then they are preparing some actions against Poland.

– What do you think, does anyone control Prigozhin at the moment, or is he still acting on his own?

– I think now no one controls him, because no one pays him. Putin would have controlled Prigozhin if he had paid him as before. Putin paid him before, and he paid a lot of money, as he admitted. But Putin does not pay him now, apparently taking revenge for his fear during Prigozhin’s short-term rebellion. Lukashenka also does not pay Prigozhin and will not pay him in the future, because he is a dictator, greedy, extremely greedy. He can only rob, he can collect, but he will never spend a penny. There is only one thing he will spend money on - the security of his body, it’s true. Therefore I think that Prigozhin is trying to find real sources of funding now. Hence this participation and activities in Africa, in particular, in Niger, I think, he is looking for it also in other African countries, especially those that are ready to pay for supporting some kind of military operations, coups and the like, or for protecting mines, even uranium or diamond. Therefore, he does not belong to anyone today, and no one controls him. Therein lies the danger.

– Does Prigozhin potentially pose a threat to the Lukashenka regime in this case?

– Yes, because he will not obey Lukashenka if he went against Putin, Lukashenka is nobody. Here we are not talking about normal human relationships. They are criminals, each of them is the leader of an organized crime group, and they can show love for each other. They can also show hatred, but for the sake of some kind of prey, for the sake of trophies, they will still come to an agreement. However, they negotiate like offenders and habitual criminals. Therefore, he can certainly pose a threat to Lukashenka. They can use him against Lukashenka, but they can also use him to support Lukashenka. I’d like to repeat it one more time, Prigozhin will go where he gets paid the most.