Excursion To Minsk, US Secret Weapon And Border Closure: What Will Be The Response To Lukashenka's Provocations?
3- 17.08.2023, 11:59
- 11,498
The reaction of the West can be very interesting.
The Baltic countries and Poland will discuss the mechanism for the complete closure of the border with Belarus on August 28 at a ministerial meeting in Warsaw.
Deputy Interior Minister of Poland Maciej Wąsik said that Warsaw expects provocations on the Polish-Belarusian border all the time. Especially on the eve of the parliamentary elections in the country. What can be the response to Lukashenka's actions? Charter97.org analysed experts’ opinions on the matter think.
Political analyst Anatol Kotau, in an interview with Charter97.org, noted that the response to Lukashenka's provocations could be the closure of borders:
“Completely close the border for goods traffic. I doubt that any strengthening of the military component of the border will be perceived in Minsk or in the Kremlin as a serious signal.”
Arkady Moshes, the Programme Director for the Russia, EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood and Eurasia Research Programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, suggested that more sanctions could be another possible reaction:
“Sanction pressure on Belarus may increase quite extremely. Yes, Putin will come to his aid and spend some money, but this hardly fits his plans.
Recently, analysts really captured that by writing off debts to African countries, the Kremlin does not show similar generosity towards the regime in Minsk. Because every ruble spent on the Lukashenka regime is a ruble that will not be spent on the production of new shells that could be used in Ukraine.”
There are Wagner mercenary troops in Belarus. They can also become a source of provocations against neighbouring countries. And here, according to experts, the answer can be much tougher.
Anatol Kotau believes that military means can also be used:
“Probably, the incident with the flight of Belarusian military helicopters into Poland was the last one that will remain unanswered by military means, which will entail absolutely unpredictable consequences, up to an armed conflict.”
Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko suggests involvment of the Belarusian volunteers:
“At the same time, Lukashenka needs to be reminded that both in Ukraine and Poland there are tens of thousands of Belarusians who can also make an “excursion” to Minsk. Voentorg for such purposes will always be open.
A hybrid war can be waged not only by Putin and Lukashenka, a hybrid war can also be waged against them.
I am sure that the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment will be happy to make an ‘excursion’ to Minsk if there will be such an opportunity.”
Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petro Chernik suggests that the US may also join the response actions:
“The Poles understand that a provocation is possible and are preparing for it. I will say, somewhere, perhaps cynically, but it would even be beneficial for us if they dared for this madness. The Poles and the US would be forced to react to this.
Their reaction can be very interesting and even asymmetrical. They definitely still have serious combat complexes. For example, in space, there is a very secret X-37 complex manufactured by Boeing. No one knows what it does, and it has been there for about two years now. In general, anything is possible. The more points of pressure on the enemy, the faster the Moscow regime will collapse.
I emphasize that Lukashenka is a completely puppet person controlled by Putin. We say ‘Lukashenka’, but we mean ‘Putin’. Everything can be expected from Putin.”
Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko expressed the opinion that the Poles could cope on their own:
In addition, the Poles, in addition to opportunities, have a rather serious motivation to “shred” all these Prigozhin’s henchmen.
If they turn up, there will be even no need to expect the activation of the fifth article of the NATO collective security treaty, but the very fact of crossing the border will be enough. The Wagnerites will receive a full-fledged response immediately.”
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