Kasparov Explains Why Putin Started War Against Ukraine

The idea was born much earlier than 2014.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been preparing for war against Ukraine for quite some time. The impunity of the dictator has created confidence that he can do anything.

Russian oppositionist Garry Kasparov told about it in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

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"It seems to me that we will know much more after Putin's fall, when documents will be opened, as was the case with the Third Reich. But, in my opinion, Putin's thoughts that the Ukrainian issue needs to be solved dramatically appeared in his head much earlier (than in 2014, - ed.)," he said.

In his opinion, the first Maidan in 2004 already served as a signal to Putin that tolerating a state where people can change power in such a way is fraught with consequences for his regime.

Kasparov is sure that the operation to annex Crimea was prepared in advance. "There were to be elections in '15, which Yanukovych would most likely have lost to a pro-Western candidate, but at the same time he would have won the elections in the eastern, southern regions and in Crimea. I think the plan to annex these regions would have worked there. But the second Maidan upset the plans. So Putin decided to force things. Everything worked out well with Crimea - after all, there was a Russian military base there. And at that time, the Ukrainian authorities were not ready to oppose (to Putin)," Kasparov said.

Kasparov reminded that Putin did not hide his plan to liquidate the Ukrainian state. "For eight years he had been openly preparing, hoping, perhaps, that he would be able to achieve this without war with the help of the Minsk agreements. But when it became clear that Zelensky's government was not going to give up and give Putin control of Ukrainian politics, he decided that it was time to resolve the issue radically," he added.

As Kasparov noted, Putin was moving consistently towards February 2022. "From Putin's point of view, the West was weak. And any dictator, especially a mafia dictator, reacts to weakness. When he sees strength, he starts hovering. But when he sees weakness, he continues to press further," he said.

Kasparov believes that Putin started to feel strongly that, in principle, he can do anything he wants. "And, unfortunately, it must be said that he was actually right. If he had managed, as he planned, to capture Kyiv in 3-4 days - let's be honest, the West wouldn't have done anything."

After that, until early April 2022, the West adopted an observer position. "But Ukraine stood its ground. Zelensky stayed in Kyiv, did not run away, as the Americans offered him. And from this moment a new countdown begins. Because Putin's plan has failed. And suddenly it turns out that in fact all this imperial tinsel, this 'second army of the world', all these tanks, missiles, aeroplanes - it is actually not enough to dictate the will to those who want to fight," Kasparov said.

"And at this point there is no longer any way out for the West - there is public opinion after all, it starts helping from April 2022, the Western administrative and military machine starts to spin out gradually, very slowly. Although even up to today we can see how hard it all goes. The West has not yet made a political decision for itself that the only worthy end to the war is a complete victory for Ukraine," Kasparov added.