'No One Needs These Russian Rubles Now'

The Ukrainian diplomat believes that Russia is following the path of the USSR.

Iran began to drive Russian oil from China’s market making discounts. Earlier, there was a scandal between the Kremlin and Tehran due to the fact that the Russian Federation sided with the UAE on the issue of disputed territories between the two countries. At the same time, Tehran issued a statement supporting the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Could the Kremlin lose its Iranian ally? The Charter97.org website talked about this with Oleh Belokolos, an expert on foreign policy and security at the Maidan of Foreign Affairs Foundation, and former adviser of the Ukrainian Embassy in Canada and Kenya.

– I prefer not to consider the alliance between Moscow and Tehran. They have fairly close political relations, and their trade and economic relations are actively developing military-technical cooperation. Tehran claims to be a regional leader, it has its own national interests. Iran cooperates with Russia on points of common interest coincidence and does not when there is no coincidence. Also, the nuclear deal is still in limbo. The situation is quite unclear. Therefore, Russia and Iran have rapprochement in some areas, but it seems to me that it is premature to talk about some kind of powerful political union.

As for oil, as far as I remember, Iran was quite active in the Chinese market initially. Then, due to significant discounts, Russia drove them out. Just market relations. The one who offers more favourable conditions gets deals. Beijing takes advantage of the fact that Russia and Iran cannot sell anywhere in such volumes. Therefore, such competition in the Chinese market is quite ordinary thing.

– There was a summit in Jeddah not so long ago. Countries of the Arab world and China took part. Is it a good idea to attract them to the side of Ukraine of such countries that are traditionally considered friends of Russia?

– I would rate this event as quite positive for Ukraine. It is no secret that Russia wants to create such a global anti-Western coalition in order to increase its weight in the international arena after being isolated from the West. This is part of the strategy of the Russian Federation: they want to establish a sphere of influence that should also include Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia. In contrast to this, our diplomacy is trying not to give an opportunity to create this coalition and advance its own agenda in coordination with other countries.

We are not hypocritical when speaking about the UN Charter, we are talking exclusively about the compliance of the fundamental international law rules. These concepts are close to many countries, including those in the Arab world, so it’s better to keep going and developing this. It is clear that this is a negotiation process, the fate of Ukraine is decided at the front, but such international events also work in favour of Ukraine.

– One of the factors that influenced the collapse of the USSR was a deal between the United States and Arab countries on the price of oil. Is there a possibility of repeating such a deal or some non-standard steps on the part of the West and countries that do not belong to it in order to stop the war?

– You see, this is an exaggeration. This was one of the factors that economically weakened the Soviet Union. But if we take into account the dynamics of the USSR in the late 80s, then we should take into account the extreme spending on the war in Afghanistan, huge defense spending, colossal spending on the already forgotten assistance of the Soviet Union to Ethiopia, which was calculated in astronomical amounts, but ended in nothing. Such an ideological policy played its role. Plus there were internal problems.

The decline in the price of oil has a certain significance in such a situation. But let's take into account the current developments in Russia and the factors affecting the exchange rate of the Russian ruble. This is not even a decline in oil prices, it is kept at an acceptable level for exporters. The owner of the Kremlin says on all platforms: "Let's trade for rubles." Well, they started trading for rubles, but no one needs these rubles on the international market. They follow the same path as the Soviet Union - towards their collapse, making one mistake after another. They have lost a stable, solvent and predictable European market, this is significant. Sooner or later, all these factors together will play a role.

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