AFU Breakthrough Near Robotyne: Russia's Three-Echelon Defence Collapses

Analysts have revealed the situation on the southern front.

The Russian occupation forces have invested considerable effort, resources and manpower in holding settlements such as Robotyno and Urozhayne. Ukraine's recent successes in these areas therefore reflect a wider deterioration in Russian defences.

Recent AFU offensives near such small settlements on the border of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions and west of Zaporizhzhia are tactically significant because of the structure of the enemy's defensive lines. This was pointed out by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukrainian military expert, reserve colonel Petro Chernik, said on 15 August that the occupiers had built a three-pronged defensive line in southern Ukraine. The first is several kilometres of minefields; the second is a concentration of Russian artillery, equipment and personnel; and the third is a line of rear positions designed to conserve resources.

But recent Ukrainian advances north and north-east of Robotyno (10 kilometres south of Orikhov) in the western Zaporizhzhia region, analysts say, could allow the AFU to operate in areas along the densest minefields.

"If the areas around Russia's second line of defence are less mined, they are likely to be more favourable for faster liberation by Ukraine," ISW stressed.

However, experts acknowledge that Russian forces have invested considerable effort, resources and manpower in holding Robotyno in Zaporizhzhia and Urozhayne in Donetsk, so the recent Ukrainian successes in these areas are likely to reflect a wider degradation of the occupiers' defences.

"Russian forces lack significant operational reserves, and Russia's intensive efforts to hold these localities instead of withdrawing its forces means that the AFU probably had to completely degrade Russian units before the offensive," the analysts suggested. They recalled that Russian forces recently redeployed units of the 7th Guards Airborne Division from the Kherson region and possibly from the border area of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions to the Robotyno area. This further indicates that the recent Ukrainian attacks have significantly weakened the occupying forces, which have been holding the defences in the western part of Zaporizhzhia without rotation since the beginning of the counter-offensive.

"The lack of operational reserves means that the Russian forces will have to reinforce some parts of the front at the expense of others, which will presumably weaken their defensive lines cumulatively and give the Ukrainian defence forces opportunities to exploit," the ISW assured. It added that the recent complaint by one of the leaders of the DPR terrorist organisation, the traitor Alexander Khodakovsky, that the Russian command 'failed to send reinforcements to protect' the depleted Russian forces 'defending' Urozhayne, may indicate that the Russian Federation is already making difficult decisions about which sectors to prioritise as Ukrainian forces advance.

"It appears that in the event of a Ukrainian breakthrough, Russian forces would have to withdraw to secondary prepared defensive positions without significant support, and the further degradation of Russian forces creates the potential for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially operationally significant," ISW concluded.