Military Expert Explains Why Khrenin Should Forget About ‘Shaheds’

There will be no large-scale production of Iranian drones.

Head of the Belarusian Defense Ministry Viktar Khrenin was on a visit to Iran. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the Belarusian minister could negotiate on the creation of the production of Shahed drones in Belarus.

Can Tehran take such a step? The website Charter97.org addressed the well-known Ukrainian military-political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko with this question:

— Indeed, recently there has been a rapprochement between the Lukashenka regime and Iran. However, I am skeptical that this will be some kind of large-scale military-technical cooperation.

Let's consider the story with the Shaheds. In Iran, the production of Shahed kamikaze drones has now been put on stream exclusively to meet the needs of Russia. Russia itself is interested in building a plant for the production of Shaheds on its territory. According to some information, the process of building the plant is already in full swing.

The most interesting thing is that Iran is currently producing Shahed-136 kamikaze drones in the amount of about 100 units per month. At the same time, in 2022, production for domestic needs averaged 50 units per month.

When the orders came in, they tried to increase the production lines. And, as we can see, they doubled it.

Why aren't they producing hundreds or even thousands of drones a month now?

— The fact is that the production of Shaheds-136 is not a closed internal cycle of the Iranian military-industrial complex. The Shaheds include a large number of foreign components (elements and spare parts) that are smuggled. I emphasize that all production depends solely on smuggling.

It is this dependence that does not allow Iranian production to globally increase the production of these kamikaze drones.

When such a plant opens in Russia (and it will work one way or another at some point), then the Russian Federation will pull over part of this smuggling for one simple reason — there is only one supplier.

If there were different suppliers, then Iran would receive more components from them. As a result, Iran will have to share this smuggling market with the Russian Federation.

And then, let's say, the third player, Belarus, appears in the arena. Production starts there. I do not think that Belarus in this case will have a predominant role in the supply of this contraband. Most likely, it will be just the third, in the rear.

Consequently, they will not be able to produce a serial, large number of Shaheds-136. If they can, then it will be a small-scale production, significantly inferior to Russian and Iranian scales.

Therefore, there is a possibility, but I don’t see any serious, large-scale threat that there will be a swarm of kamikaze drones.

— Lukashenka will seriously set Belarus up with such a plant. After all, production will become a target for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

— Lukashenka sets Belarus up with his very existence. Everything else is a package deal.