Russian Command Is Frantically Plugging Holes Dooming Its Many Troops

The southern front is crumbling.

Ukrainian troops broke through the defence line of the Russian invaders in Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region. Oleksandr Tarnavsky, the commander of the Tavria Operational and Strategic Group of Troops, spoke about this.

The fact that the situation for Russians in this area has radically changed for the worse is confirmed by both the American Institute for the Study of War and Z-bloggers [Russian propaganda milbloggers - Ed.]. According to some reports, there is a possibility that some of the enemy troops will be encircled in this area.

About how the counteroffensive is going on in the south of Ukraine - in the article by OBOZREVATEL.

The order is to keep soldiers alive

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that “Russian troops near Robotyne and Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region are not retreating to deeper defensive positions built during the occupation of these territories, but are conducting their own counterattacks.” Moreover, their actions were not only senseless but also led to numerous losses - Ukrainian troops quite successfully suppressed such attacks.

Such bloody counterattacks could be an order from the Russian command, ISW experts say. Putin and the Kremlin present Russian defensive operations as a major victory on the battlefield, and constant counterattacks suggest that these operations are isolated victories against the backdrop of a general lack of success for the Russian Federation elsewhere.

“Putin may have ordered military commanders to hold all initial defensive positions to create the illusion that the Ukrainian counteroffensive had produced no tactical or operational results, despite significant Western support. The deadline to improve the situation at the front is until the beginning of October. It is during this time that the Russians want to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensives and return the initiative to their troops, even starting an offensive operation,” ISW analysts say.

They want to stop the advance but no forces

“Russia does not have the necessary reserves to hold this area,” says Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political expert at the Information Resistance Group. “Ukraine's operations in Bakhmut keep Russian troops in the eastern part of Ukraine and away from the southern front. If we talk about the Vostok Group of Forces, its reserves ran out in the summer. That is why the occupiers are transferring elite airborne units from the Luhansk region, for example, in order to somehow strengthen the defence of the south. At the moment, they have almost exhausted the resources of other bridgeheads.

The units of the 810th Infantry Brigade lost their combat effectiveness, a significant part of the officer corps of the 7th Airborne Assault Division was liquidated, and the combat capability of the 234th and 237th Airborne Assault Regiments of the 76th Airborne Assault Division was undermined. By the way, those who were supposed to directly participate in surrounding the Ukrainian forces near Tokmak.

Of course, it would be better for the Russians to withdraw their troops deep into the defence, but this is a classic tactic for their actions at the front. They hold the defence in one or another locality to the last, even if there is a dead-end. They spend their resources, and after losing territory, they begin to pointlessly attack with large losses of troops. This was the case with Robotyne, Kleshchiivka and Andriivka.

A similar situation is unfolding near Novoprokopivka today, which is south of Robotyne. After they lost their main defence stronghold, it became clear that they would not be able to hold this village. Ukrainian Defence Forces have captured it, but the Russians are still there. Well, they will suffer heavy losses again,” the expert said.

According to Oleksandr Kovalenko, such tactics are primarily due to the fact that the Russians want to delay as much as possible and wait for the bad weather. This, in their opinion, will really help stop the advance of Ukrainian forces.

“They cannot stop our counteroffensive - they can only slow it down, flooding us with human resources,” continues Oleksandr Kovalenko. “That’s why the Russian command is counting on the rainy season a lot. Will this help them? It depends on where the Ukrainian forces will be at this moment. If we are north of Tokmak, this can greatly slow us down. If the Ukrainian forces reach south of this city, then the weather will play virtually no role in our further advance. It is in October, while the weather is still quite dry, that the further development of events that awaits us in November-December is decided.”

The Russians wanted to surround the Ukrainian troops, but it seems they themselves will fall into this trap

According to ISW analysts, who cite Russian sources, the 7th and 76th Airborne Divisions were ordered to encircle the Ukrainian forces in the Zaporizhzhia region. However, they not only failed to complete the assigned task, but also practically lost their combat effectiveness. It should be noted that more than half of the personnel of these divisions are mobilized. At the moment, self-propelled guns can already encircle part of the Russian forces in this area.

At the moment, the 56th Airborne Regiment, which is located in Novofedorivka, is under immediate threat of encirclement. The regiment suffered high casualties and low morale, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

“It is too early to say that the Ukrainian forces may soon be surrounded by Russian occupation forces in this area,” continues Oleksandr Kovalenko. “However, the Russians really have significant problems in this direction and it’s difficult for them to hold the line.” We can definitely talk about the coverage of their forces in the southwestern sector, which can lead to very good results for us.”

Not all occupiers like “meat” assaults

Mobilized soldiers of the 1st Battalion of the 1442nd Regiment from the Altai Region, operating in the Bakhmut direction, recorded a video message saying that they had abandoned their positions and weapons in the area of the village of Kleshchiivka after they were ordered to form an assault group “for certain death”. They also say that “the ammunition is terrible, it’s impossible to fire but if possible the shells don’t explode.”

The occupiers add that their troops have low morale after hearing reports that Ukrainian forces destroyed most of a Russian regiment and almost the entire assault group retreating from there. The Russians also claim that they have no prepared defensive positions and are forced to rely on small arms, while the Ukrainians have artillery.

Relatives of the soldiers of the 1442nd Regiment previously appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin after the Russian military command ordered the beating of soldiers for refusing the assault on September 14.

Mobilized Russians do not want to fight

It seems that the news from the front is not very encouraging for Russian men to go to war. Thus, many Russians who were mobilized last autumn began to be tried for leaving their units without permission (337 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation). Starting from May 2023, garrison military courts of the Russian Federation have handed down on average about a hundred sentences per week in the awol cases, writes Mediazona, citing judicial statistics.

In 513 cases, the texts of decisions on such cases were published on court websites. It follows from them that 58% of the sentences concerned precisely those who were sent to serve by decree of the President of the Russian Federation. Another 39% were contract soldiers at the time of the full-scale invasion, the rest were conscripts.

It’s interesting that more than half of all sentences are suspended. This allows the convict to be sent back to the front. In some cases, the defendant's obligations to continue fighting were included in verdicts. In addition, a suspended sentence allows commanders to control soldiers, since it can be changed to a real one for any violation.

Ukrainian Defence Forces set a record

Over the 3 weeks of September, 680 enemy artillery systems were destroyed at the front, said Oleksandr Kovalenko. They are to destroy 12 more artillery systems to achieve the all-time record. The second record is Russian losses of MLRS systems. There are 54 MRLSs today. And the third expected record vehicles. In September, 707 vehicles had already been destroyed, which is the second figure for the entire period of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.