Political Scientist: Catastrophe Is Coming To Lukashenka

The decrepit regime falls into Brezhnev's insanity.

The Belarusian authorities recognized the mass exodus of citizens from the country for the first time. According to the representative of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, more than 200,000 people left in 2021-2022. The figure is certainly much higher if we consider 2023. Earlier, Aliaksandr Lukashenka downplayed the scale, talking about several thousand "fugitives". The figure is colossal for 9 million Belarus. And mostly the smartest and most educated young people leave. According to the latest data, Belarus is the oldest country in the EAEU. It fell into a demographic pit, and the repression and the exodus of people from the country caused by them exacerbated the problem, writes Belarusian political scientist Aliaksandr Klaskouski.

On January 18, the head of the Department for Citizenship and Migration of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus, Aliaksei Behun, reported on the ONT TV channel that more than 200,000 citizens left Belarus for various reasons in 2021-2022. "Of course, a lot because this is a working-age population," he said.

IT specialists now replenish the budgets of other countries

The Belarusian economy, which Lukashenka prefers to manage by administrative and command methods, has been in stagnation for more than 10 years. And independent experts predict its continuation. Paychecks in Belarus are already three times lower than those of their neighbours — Poles and citizens of the Baltic countries.

Often a mixture of two reasons pushes them to emigrate. For example, IT specialists actively participated in the 2020 protests. Lukashenka was surprised: “What else do they want having such huge incomes? Do they just play with a flair?” The ruler did not understand and does not understand that a significant part of society has outgrown this system, they want to really elect the authorities, have independent courts, and, in the end, just breathe freely.

Of course, the IT specialists did not like it when the riot police threshed their brainy heads with batons. The working conditions for IT companies have noticeably deteriorated, they began to leave the state with a toxic reputation one by one, relocating offices and employees. Now these companies are actively replenishing, in particular, the Polish and Lithuanian budgets.

As a result, the indicators of the Belarusian IT sector, which officials previously proudly called the driver of the national economy (Lukashenka claimed that he created a Park of High Technologies with greenhouse conditions), sharply sank. If in January-November 2023 the share of IT and communications in Belarusian GDP was 6.8%, then in the same period of 2023 it was only 4.4%. At the same time, the industry's contribution to GDP dynamics turned out to be negative — minus 1%. Well-known IT specialist Pavel Lieber says that Belarus can no longer be considered an IT state.

The return commission turned out to be big nothing

There is also an acute shortage of doctors and other specialists in Belarus. At the beginning of last year, the authorities tried to rectify the situation by creating a so-called return commission to attract migrants back. Like, write applications to it, we will review and let you know if it is safe for you to come back.

As a result, the idea became a farce. The commission was made up largely of odious enforcers, propagandists like Ryhor Azaronak, who frantically calls on TV to severely punish everyone.

The tone of the work of the commission was set by Lukashenka personally. He proclaimed a formula for the return of “fugitives”, in its terminology: "On their knees, crawling!» So there were not many applications. The idea to apply was finally broken by cases when some returnees were still put on trial.

Belarusians fought for their own dignity when they came to the streets in 2020. And these people do not want to return "crawling, on their knees" to that big prison, which the whole of Belarus has become. Many believe that they will return to the new Belarus sooner or later. Because it is decrepit, the regime itself gradually falls into Brezhnev's insanity.