The Telegraph: Russia’s Actions In Black Sea Risk All-Out War With NATO

This is not just a war crime.

After Ukraine pushed the Russian fleet out of the Black Sea, Russia is trying to use mines to limit or stop Ukrainian grain exports. In doing so, the Russians are using drifting mines, which violates international law and could trigger a full-scale conflict with NATO, writes Royal Navy officer Tom Sharpe in an article for The Telegraph.

According to Sharpe, mines are the simplest and some of the most effective seagoing weapons. The reason mines are ubiquitous is because they are cheap, easy to make, easy to deploy and hard to counter.

There are multiple bits of international law governing use of sea mines. In particular, the Hague Convention states that drifting mines must render themselves safe after no more than one hour adrift and moored mines must render safe if they break loose from their mooring.

In general, mines, like other classes of weapon, must not be used in indiscriminate attacks on civilians and/or neutrals.

“Unfortunately, however, these rules only apply to us. None of our adversaries, potential or actual, cares one jot for them. Russia didn't sign up to the Hague Convention and is highly unlikely to accept the Chatham House notion that it has “acquired the status of customary international law thus making it binding on all states”. Enemies like Iran and Russia deploy mines freely, including purpose-designed long lived drifters, deny they've done it, and then watch the results come in from a safe distance,” the expert writes.

The second issue with mines: how difficult it is to clear them.

According to the expert, some navies, particularly European ones, have effective MCM forces, but many do not. This is one of the areas in which the US is surprisingly weak.

Even if you have ample, effective MCM forces there are two realities in clearing sea mines: it takes a long time, and you can never be sure you've got them all, the expert notes.

“The larger the area and the lower the risk desired, the longer it takes — with the time required rising exponentially as you approach complete safety.”

Mines on land are dangerous too but at least there, once you have cleared an area, it remains cleared. At sea, this is not the case, he explains.

So far in the Black Sea mine strikes have been mercifully rare, says the expert, underlining two cases — when the MV Helt, an Estonian cargo ship, was hit and sunk off Odesa in March 2022, and when the bulk carrier Vyssos was hit near the stern while en route to the Izmail port on the Danube.

Consequences of mining the Black Sea

The expert notes that Russia has a number of military ways of launching mines in the Black Sea, from their Kilo-class submarines to their warships to aircraft and helicopters. But the problem with mine laying is that almost any vessel can do it, he adds.

Russia's Black Sea mining campaign is not just a war crime, it also runs the risk of triggering a direct war with NATO. Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania are all NATO nations, and the grain corridor lies within their territorial waters:

“The point is, what happens when a free-floating mine drifts into NATO territorial waters and sinks or damages a ship there? That is a NATO Article V situation: the alliance members are required to respond to such an attack as if it were an attack on them all … it's only a matter of time before Russian mining causes a major incident which could escalate.”

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