‘This Will Be Final Sentence For Lukashenka’

Western countries are actively monitoring the dictator's behavior.

Political scientist Aliaksandr Friedman expressed the opinion that the International Criminal Court in the Hague would issue a warrant for Lukashenka's arrest.

“Most likely, a warrant will be issued. A fundamental decision on this issue has already been made. The only question is when this will happen,” Friedman said on the Ordinary Morning show.

As the analyst explains, the International Criminal Court is trying to be independent, but it does not always succeed.

“Did he deserve the warrant? Of course. But now is not the right time politically,” Friedman notes.

From the analyst's point of view, issuing an arrest warrant will push Lukashenka with all his might into Moscow's arms. As a result, he will participate in the war against Western countries more actively.

“And more active participation is not needed at all now. It is absolutely unprofitable. Transferring military actions to the territory of Belarus is not needed. Therefore, why, strictly speaking, anger him ahead of time? He will get his warrant. And he himself feels that he will get it,” says Friedman.

As the analyst notes, Western countries are actively monitoring the behavior of Lukashenka, who has not yet shown active participation in the war, and therefore, probably, the logic of the West is as follows: if a warrant is issued for Lukashenka’s arrest, as has already been done with Putin, then the Belarusian dictator will have no choice. Sooner or later, the Hague awaits him, and this will be a kind of final sentence for him.

“For Lukashenka, this would be a final sentence. In the case of Putin, things are not so clear-cut,” says Friedman. As he explains, when the warrant was issued for Putin, many Western politicians stopped communicating with him. But recently information appeared that German Chancellor Scholz is considering the possibility of calling Putin. This indicates that the warrant has not become a serious obstacle to such contacts.

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