Lukashenka's Time Is Running Out

There will be a chance for change.

What happened was predicted by many symptoms: Aliaksandr Lukashenka moved up the date of the presidential elections. And by as much as six months. Why is he in such a hurry?

Yes, formally we do not yet know whether Aliaksandr Lukashenka will run for another term. But there is practically no doubt about it (unless something extraordinary happens). There is too little time to promote a theoretical successor.

And the leader of the regime does not see a worthy successor. More precisely, he is simply afraid to hand over the helm to anyone.

The Kremlin, apparently, gave Lukashenka a label for a new term and symbolically illustrated this with an order from Putin. Moscow has absolutely no need to change horses in midstream. In the event of peace talks on Ukraine, the ruler of Belarus would like to sit at their table wearing a new crown.

At the same time, war is a rather unpredictable thing. Lukashenka may think: the devil knows what these Ukrainians have in mind. Yesterday they entered the Kursk region, and tomorrow they suddenly bang on the Mazyr Oil Refinery and off we go. What elections are we talking about?

Another point: just today, at a meeting of the joint board of the defense ministries of Belarus and Russia in Minsk, the plan for joint strategic exercises West-2025 was approved. We can only guess what this plan is.

Let's remember: it was under the guise of joint maneuvers that Russian troops entered Belarus to attack Kyiv in February 2022. What if Moscow wants to repeat it? It is clear that such a prospect also does not contribute to the conduct of an electoral campaign.

In short, the fog of war, one must think, is also pushing Lukashenka to hold elections earlier.

Finally, we don't really know what is wrong with his health. It is only obvious that it is not improving and he himself is not getting any younger. Perhaps the health factor is also forcing Lukashenka to speed up the process.

The idea that the ruler's time is running out one way or another warms the souls of his political opponents. Because Lukashenka is the preservation of the system, but after him there is at least a chance for change.

Aliaksandr Klaskouski, Pozirk

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