Newsweek: Kremlin May Have New ‘Trojan Horse’ In Europe

Moscow views this as its last chance.

Moldova's referendum on EU membership was on the brink of failure, but voters still narrowly supported the constitutional amendment.

According to Newsweek, although experts called this referendum “a defeat of Russia”, the Kremlin is unlikely to stop trying to wield its influence in the country, both during the accession process and if successful, afterward.

“The governments of EU member states with friendlier ties to the Kremlin, such as Hungary and Slovakia, have sought to frustrate EU decision-making around Russian sanctions and military and financial support for Ukraine. A future pro-Russian government of Moldova that is a full member of the EU, could, along with its MEPs, similarly try to influence EU policy on Russian sanctions, energy imports and security,” said Jeremy Holt, head of Central and Eastern Europe at geopolitical and cyber risk consultancy S-RM.

At the same time, the expert notes that one of the key issues that the EU will want to resolve before Moldova’s accession is the problem of Transnistria.

“Given the increase in Russian active measures throughout Europe, the EU is likely to strongly consider security risks during the future accession process, and the question of Transnistria's status presents a sizable obstacle in accession talks,” said Holt.

He noted that not every “no” vote in the referendum was the result of Russian influence and not all Moldovan citizens back EU membership. Pro-Russian media, NGOs and political groups, as well as Russian-owned businesses, have flourished in Transnistria and Gagauzia.

“This moment presents a unique opportunity to solidify Moldova's European aspirations, but it is imperative to prepare for next year's parliamentary elections,” said visiting fellow at the European University Institute Cristina Vanberghen. The Kremlin “views this as its last chance to exert control over the region”.

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