Natallia Radzina: Lukashenka Is An Old Crumbling Log
15- 31.10.2024, 16:11
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PHOTO: CHARTER'97
A dictator doesn't have five years.
Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website, expressed the opinion that the upcoming "elections" are the last for Lukashenka. Here is the interview:
— The presidential "elections" will take place earlier than everyone thought. In three months — January 26. Why is Lukashenka in such a hurry?
— Lukashenka is in a hurry, realizing that later he may not have a chance to participate in these presidential "elections". Firstly, we see that the state of health of the dictator is critical.
It was reported that due to diabetes, he even had his toes amputated. We see him limping at every meeting. And while he is still on his feet, it is obvious that he would like to participate in the "elections". He can't imagine himself without power. But we can't call it "elections". Of course, this is just a farce.
You can listen to the conversation here
— Rumors about Lukashenka's poor health have been circulating for a year or two or three...
— I agree, it lasts for many years, not only for a year or two or three. But now he is already 70, and we see that in fact Lukashenka is not even able to walk a few meters at the parade in Moscow, as it was this year on May 9. It is already obvious to everyone that the dictator's state of health is very bad.
— The economy is also not moving for the better, but for the worse every month.
— I agree with you, the situation in Belarus is very difficult. And not only political, but also economic. Lukashenka, firstly, understands that today he is not supported by the majority of the population. He lost the 2020 "elections" and the mass repressions that hit society added no love for the dictator.
We know that people, of course, cannot openly talk about their position now, but they hate this government.
And the economic situation is getting only worse. Russia today is not able to finance the Belarusian dictatorship in the same volumes. Because they are waging war against Ukraine, and also support terrorist regimes around the world. Now Russia is on the verge of an economic crisis. Money from Russia no longer goes to Belarus as it was before.
What should Belarusians do on January 26? Zianon Pazniak proposes a boycott. Tsikhanouskaia's office calls for to vote against everyone.
— I believe that these "elections" should be ignored. Do not go to polling stations on January 26 under any circumstances. It is clear that Belarusians will be driven by force there. The administrative resource will be used, civil servants will be forced to go. There will also be many early votes — 35-40%. This is what happens in every “election” falsified by Lukashenka.
But on the day of the "elections", it is very difficult for the authorities to drive people to the polling stations. Therefore, those who do not depend on the state, are not civil servants, can skip it, and those who depend — "get sick" or take sick leave.
It is necessary to show empty polling stations on January 26. It will be very eloquent to say that Belarusians do not agree with the dictatorship.
I consider what Tsikhanouskaia's office offers to be work for the authorities. In no case should you go and vote against everyone. After all, this will ensure the turnout. Propaganda will show areas full of people and say, "all these people came to vote for Lukashenka."
Yes, they will draw the result, but if the sites are empty, it will show the Belarusian protest. It will show that Belarusians are against the dictatorship. This can and should be done on January 26.
— Watching what is happening in Belarus, I can imagine that on the eve of this performance it may turn out that non-participation in the "elections" is extremism, terrorism, treason.
— If there are such conditions, it will be possible to develop another strategy, but for today, it seems to me that the best option is to ignore this farce.
— And wait. For what?
— I am sure that these are the last "elections" of Lukashenka. This is his last performance. Believe me, Lukashenka simply does not have five years to wait for the next "election". The situation is very complicated, and it is related to the war in Ukraine. It is obvious that great changes await us during these years.
Russia cannot endlessly wage this war, it is running out of resources. The Lukashenka regime is running out of them. Western sanctions imposed after 2020 are working, the regime is suffering heavy losses due to the ban on the export of Belarusian oil products, potash and nitrogen fertilizers. All this powerfully hits the regime.
Isolation is driving Belarus into ever-greater losses. I see from the moods of not only ordinary people who hate the authorities, but also the establishment that they are dissatisfied, realizing that the current situation in Belarus is an absolute impasse, and it is necessary to get out of it.
Lukashenka's power today threatens Belarus with the loss of independence. The dictator is so dependent on Moscow that the next step on the part of the Kremlin may be to hold some kind of "referendum" on the accession of Belarus to the Russian Federation.
Not only the Belarusian people, but also the establishment do not want this. They understand that they will lose everything in this case. I know that they are confused, thinking that something needs to be changed. And the dictator is not eternal, but an old crumbling deck. They wonder: what will happen when he's gone?
— We often hear that Russia will collapse and only then will there be a new Belarus. But don't we believe too much in the collapse of Russia? The question arises, who needs it?
We see what support for Ukraine in the war with Russia looks like. It seems to exist, but it is such that, God forbid, Ukraine will not win, because Russia's loss may be the beginning of its end. Who needs it? Who will take the nukes? And all these oil and gas fields? Who will use these? Maybe China?
— I can say that no one in the West wanted the collapse of the USSR. Yes, there was a "cold war", competition between the United States and the Soviet Union, but, I emphasize, in fact, the United States did not want the USSR to collapse.
Now they also don't know exactly what will happen. But the collapse of the USSR happened, and the same will happen with Russia. I believe that the collapse of the Russian Federation is inevitable. Russia, having started a war against Ukraine, opened a Pandora's box.
— But they wanted the collapse of the USSR within the union: the Baltic states, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, I think Belarus as well. Now the situation is more sealed...
— The fact is that then the USSR did not collapse fully. Now, 30 years later, we are witnessing this process of the post-disintegration of the Soviet Union.
At that time, the Russian Empire retained its influence in the post-Soviet space and many national republics could not secede from it. The dictatorships that arose in Belarus, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, were supported by Russian money.
Today, Russia is running out of money, as I said, too much of it goes to war. Now Putin is at war with the whole world.
We see how difficult the situation is in its economy, which is practically put on a war footing. It will not withstand, as the USSR could not even withstand the war in Afghanistan. Today's Russia will not survive the war against Ukraine.
— At the end of our conversation, a bit of humor. Although, I don't know if it's a good joke. And why not vote for Lukashenka's sparring partners. Haidukevich is going to take part in this January performance. So let's all vote for Haidukevich, and there let them sort things out among themselves.
Lukashenka does not tolerate his failures. It is clear that he will not give up power, maybe Haidukevich will be imprisoned. But can his heart and head withstand it?
— Under no circumstances should this be done. This will again be the same turnout in the "elections" that Lukashenka is waiting for. That's why he launches these spoilers. There will be no 2020 situation, when people also voted for a random person — Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaia, who has never been in opposition and politics.
But then the opposition was preparing protests, and this was the main thing. No one is preparing protests after these "elections", if you vote for spoilers, you will work for the regime. Therefore — only ignoring these "elections".
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