It's Known When Russia'll Run Out Of Tanks And IFVs

Experts have named the dates.

Russian depots with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles should run out in 2027, with artillery - in 2026, with multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) - in 2025, and mortar stocks are almost empty. This is the conclusion reached by journalists from Ekonomicheskaya Pravda after analyzing OSINT data and satellite photos and using the linear interpolation method.

In addition, according to Pavel Luzin, an expert on Russian military potential at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis, at the current rate of depletion, Russian tanks and infantry vehicles will reach a "critical point of depletion" before the second half of 2026.

"Despite numerous statements that Russia has switched to a war footing and spends about 8% of its GDP on defence, the Kremlin can compensate for the loss of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery only by removing from storage and restoring equipment manufactured in Soviet times. However, these reserves do not seem inexhaustible," the publication says.

It is also emphasized that not all equipment in Russian warehouses is suitable even for "cannibalism" - for dismantling for spare parts to make "new" weapons.

"For example, out of 3.4 thousand tanks, only 614 (18%) are in satisfactory condition, 1.7 thousand are in poor condition, 1.1 thousand are in terrible condition, analysts believe," the article notes.

As for new production of weapons in the Russian Federation, according to The Economist, 175 modern T-90M tanks have been sent to the front since February 24, 2022, and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates their production in 2024 at up to 90 units. And Luzin is completely confident that Russia can actually produce only 30 tanks per year.

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