'There Are Two Versions': Why 'Shahed' Flew To Kalinkavichy

Does Russia scare Lukashenka?

On Thursday, October 3, at about 5 o'clock in the morning, residents of Kalinkavichy in the Homel region heard the sound of an explosion. Earlier, Ukrainian monitoring channels reported an invasion of the airspace of Belarus at about 04:40 by a Russian Shahed-type UAV from the territory of the Kyiv region of Ukraine.

How do Russian drones enter the territory of Belarus? The Charter97.org website spoke about this with military expert, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs of the Razumkov Center in Kyiv Oleksiy Melnyk:

— In my opinion, there are two main versions. The first is EW effect. If you look at the daily reports of the Air Force of Ukraine, when there is a report on the number of drones or missiles that were launched against Ukraine, as well as the number of downed, the last month and a half there was a certain number of "locally lost" objects.

This is a new category, before they were just "knocked down", and recently "locally lost" were added. These are the ones that were not shot down by anti-aircraft fire, but they fell either on the territory of Ukraine or simply went somewhere. There is also sometimes an explanation "returned to the territory of Russia" or "flew to the territory of Belarus". This may be the result of exposure to electronic warfare.

The second option, I cannot yet find real confirmation, but I would not exclude it, this is either the mistake of the operators who launch the mission profile or intentionally drones fly into the territory of Belarus on their way to Ukraine. On this segment, when they fly in the airspace of Belarus, Ukrainian air defence systems will not counter these drones.

Or it could be something deliberate. For example, to provoke Lukashenka, to some retaliatory steps. The first is the EW of Ukraine, the second is either erroneous or deliberate actions of the Russian operators.

— It is noteworthy that the Shaheds have already flown to Belarus twice when Lukashenka's helicopter was in the sky. Did that happen by chance?

— This fits the second version. But along the way, it is worth noting that not only Belarus affected, drones also fell on the territory of Poland, Moldova, Romania, the case was recorded in Latvia. The threat from Russian drones to other countries until today has been without significant damage on the ground and human casualties, but it's just a matter of time.

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