US Intelligence Exposes Putin's Bluff

ATACMS strikes deep into Russian territory will not lead to nuclear escalation.

Permitting Ukraine to fire long-range ATACMS missiles deep into Russian territory will not lead to nuclear escalation, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's ‘bellicose’ statements. This is the conclusion reached by US intelligence, five well-informed sources told Reuters.

They said intelligence had been studying the situation for the past seven months and had argued in several reports even before President Joe Biden's decision to authorise Kyiv strikes on Russian territory that it would not increase the risks of a nuclear conflict. ‘The assessments have been consistent: ATACMS will not change Russia's nuclear calculations,’ said one Reuters interlocutor.

The Russian military's use of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile, which hit a military plant in Dnipro, also did not change the opinion of US intelligence, the agency's sources said. According to them, the intelligence community is convinced that Russia's use of nuclear weapons is unlikely because they ‘do not provide a clear military advantage.’

However, the US fears other possible variants of Russia's response to strikes deep into its territory. In particular, potential sabotage at military and other facilities in Europe is a concern. Moscow has denied accusations of preparing such actions.

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