‘There Are Two Main Currents In Republican Establishment’
9- 7.11.2024, 15:54
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Which one will prevail?
Republican Donald Trump won a confident victory in the US presidential election.
Director of the Center for National Resilience Studies in Kyiv, former adviser to the Ukrainian embassy in Canada and Kenya Oleh Bilokolos shared his predictions with the Charter97.org website regarding how the election results will affect the situation in Ukraine and in relations with Russia, as well as what challenges the new US administration may face in the coming years:
— I don't think this is a sensation, because all the estimates that were voiced were 50/50. The gap was minimal, within the statistical error. At the same time, all serious researchers urge not to trust sociological surveys in the United States and not to rely only on them, since there are specifics of the electoral system, and estimates may differ from the real situation on the ground.
Therefore, there is no sensation in this regard. Nobody expected that the gap, say, between Harris and Trump would be 10%, and then Trump would suddenly win. For those who have been closely following the situation lately, there was no sensation.
— What do they expect from Trump's presidency now in Ukraine, what kind of foreign policy?
— In Ukraine, as elsewhere in a democratic society, there are different points of view on what Trump's foreign policy will be towards Russia and the war in particular. In the Republican establishment, two main currents can be identified.
The first is in favor of maximizing aid to Ukraine, many times more than the Democrats, thereby making it clear to Russia that it will not win, and thus forcing it to enter into some kind of process close to peaceful.
The second part of the establishment believes that the war does not threaten the national interests of the United States and does not pose an immediate threat, so this is primarily a problem for Europe. European politicians must do much more to solve this problem, including aid that must come first from European countries, not the United States, which has already invested more than $50 billion in military aid alone. It is still unknown which current will prevail and who will be appointed to the posts of Secretary of State and Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. In addition, the new administration will face other challenges, such as the Middle East conflict with Iran and North Korea's nuclear ambitions. So, in my opinion, the situation today looks like this.
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