VOA: Belarus In NATO Is Real Prospect

This can happen much faster than expected.

The Dom Wschodni ("East House") in the capital of Poland hosted the presentation of the book "Belarus in NATO", the Voice of America reports.

The book, which collects the works by experts from nine countries, is published in Belarusian, Ukrainian, Russian and English.

The authors of the articles tried to answer the questions: "What response to new challenges can the region of Eastern and Central Europe pay tribute to?" and "What is the role of Belarus in creating a new security architecture in Europe?"

During the presentation of the book in Warsaw, Natallia Radzina, the host of the presentation, and Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website, noted: "I am absolutely sure that Belarus will become free. And it will happen soon. There may be different ways, but Belarus will be free and democratic. We need to think today about how we will rebuild our country and what kind of Belarus we want to live in."

Former Polish Defence Minister Janusz Onyszkiewicz, a participant at the event, believes that it is strategically historically important for his country that Belarus joins both NATO and the EU. “We feel a great proximity with the Belarusians. They are our neighbors and we have hundreds of years of common history. We can say that this is a psychological and emotional kind of feeling. But there is also a strategic element. Belarus in NATO means that Ukraine is no longer under threat,"Onyszkiewicz said.

VOA spoke with some of the authors of the book who attended the event in Warsaw.

“Russia is the only destructive force in Europe”

Andrei Sannikov, the editor of "Belarus in NATO", the candidate from the democratic opposition in the presidential 2010 Belarusian elections, and now the leader of the European Belarus Civil Campaign, admits that the idea of publishing this book in four languages belongs to him.

"Honestly, it appeared quite a long time ago, but since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine took place in 2022, it became clear that security issues in Europe are already on a different level. A completely different approach is needed and it is absolutely clear that NATO is the only organization that can ensure European security," he said in an interview with the VOA Russian Service.

Among the authors of the collection are representatives of the Baltic countries, Poland, Ukraine (former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin wrote an article), Hungary, which today has an ambiguous position on the challenges faced by the EU and NATO, as well as Finland, as a new member of the Alliance, and, of course, the United States and Belarus.

Andrei Sannikov stressed that the citizens of Belarus are the prime target audience of the book. "In my opinion, it is necessary to talk in detail about the future scenario of ensuring our security and a path for Belarus. I tried to say in this book that there are, in fact, no other options. There were some options for regional security before Russia's invasion –the famous Baltic-Black Sea Union – The BPF Party, Baltic States and Ukraine were choosing between it and neutrality in the 90s. All this has gone two years ago and it seems to me that it is necessary, without waiting for political changes, to finally choose the path. I set this task and it seems to me that it was well covered by the foremost experts," the leader of the European Belarus said.

Answering the forecasted question of skeptics, "When can the book title's event happen?", which today is perceived rather as an abstract idea, Andrei Sannikov referred to the opinion of one of the authors – the famous Hungarian diplomat and public figure István Gyarmati, that this can happen much faster than can be assumed.

"The reality is that the time is very turbulent, many processes that we did not even suspect to happen are taking place. As for the name, I thought it could be called "The Role of Belarus in the Architecture of European Security" or something like that, but then I decided to name it directly, and one of my acquaintances, to whom I showed the layout, said that his mood even improved when he saw this name. The agenda is set initially and people begin to discuss in detail what needs to be done. That was going on at the presentation – the participants were asking specific questions about what needs to be done to move in this direction," the book initiator said.

He ends his article with the thesis: "NATO turned out to be the only security body that came to the aid of Ukraine and continues to provide all possible assistance and support."

In this regard, the VOA correspondent asked how he felt about the discussion about whether NATO would be forced to send troops to Ukraine.

"There are all the grounds," the Belarusian opposition politician believes. "NATO, like the whole West, missed 2023, because Ukraine had much more resources and quite feasible plans for a counteroffensive. However, the non-delivery of weapons and the timid role of NATO had an impact – assistance, of course, is provided, but insufficient. Everyone understands today that Russia must be stopped because, as the authors of the book said: Russia is the only destructive force in Europe."

At the end of the conversation, Andrei Sannikov said that he had already sent both electronic versions of the collection and paper copies to the United States. "This arouses great interest and is perceived very positively. We will continue discussions, meetings and events after the presentation in Warsaw," he concluded.

"I see no reason why Belarus would not start moving towards NATO"

Andrius Kubilius, a MEP from Lithuania, considers the prospect of Belarus' membership in the Alliance a very important topic, therefore, from his point of view, it is good that the citizens of the republic began to discuss it. "I had the opportunity to set out my broader view of why it is important to look at such a prospect for Belarus, of course, regarding the transformation of the country into a democracy and further possible development. I do not see much difference between how a democratic Belarus and a democratic Ukraine are to act. Both countries need integration into the European Union and NATO," the Lithuanian politician stressed.

In his article, Andrius Kubilius tried to draw two options for the development of further events: Belarus together with Russia become democracies, or Belarus becomes a democracy, and Russia remains authoritarian. And both options provide, according to the Lithuanian MEP, arguments why Belarus should join the EU and NATO.

Recalling the history of his country, Mr. Kubilius notes that in 1985 the independence of Lithuania seemed like a utopia, and in 1990 it came true. “Talking about utopias in our region is not entirely rational. Everything can happen, and non-utopias are those historical trends that have become very well visible over the past 30 years – the spread of democracy from the western outskirts of the former USSR more and more to the East," he said.

The Lithuanian politician recalls that Belarus has remained one of the few countries in the European part of the former Soviet Union that has not yet begun to actively move along this path, although the attempt of the 2020 revolution showed that the potential is very great. No one knows how this potential will show itself and when it will manifest itself.

"But I see the prospect of democracy in Belarus as quite real, I can not say when it will happen, but five years is a real horizon for it in my opinion. When Belarus becomes a democracy, then there will be all the prerequisites for it to move quickly, firstly, towards the European Union, as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the entire Front for New Belarus announced in the summer of 2023. This is a very correct statement, we need to consider it now. We are trying to persuade the European Commission to start developing what the association agreement for democratic Belarus, which Ukraine received after the Maidan, will look like. Also, I see no reason why Belarus would not move towards NATO, either to defend itself against authoritarian Russia or to be part of the Alliance. Even if Russia becomes a democracy and is no longer such a threat to Europe," Andrius Kubilius is sure.

"At present, Russia does not plan to stop the war, but is ready to fight for decades"

Yuri Felshtinsky explained his participation in the creation of the edited book: "Back in 2014, when Russian troops entered Crimea and Operation Novorossiya began and it ended in partial success, and the rest was an exit to Odesa to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea and go through the Odesa Region to Transnistria to ignite the war in Moldova - Russian troops failed this part of the operation. After that, I realized that Russia had made a military and strategic mistake."

In a conversation with the VOA correspondent, Felshtinsky explained what this mistake was, from his point of view. Namely, the Kremlin needed to start the war with Ukraine not with strikes on the southern and eastern regions of the neighboring country for the success of the Novorossiya plan, because there were strong sympathies for Moscow, but with strikes aimed at capturing Kyiv and then Lviv. "They firstly would need to occupy Belarus to achieve this. And then there were several publications about the need to monitor what would happen in Belarus. If we see Russian troops in Belarus, this will mean that Russia is preparing a new attack on Ukraine," Yuri Felshtinsky continues.

"After a while, Russian troops were indeed sent to the territory of the Republic of Belarus under the pretext of joint military exercises, which stretched for a long time. These troops moved from the territory of Belarus to the northern regions of Ukraine after the announcement by Vladimir Putin of the so-called "special military operation" by Russia's army [the attack on Ukraine - Ed.]. Moreover, part of the Russian political opposition activists believe that it is necessary to fully use the five-word statement since its abbreviation more accurately reflects the actions of the aggressor country than just the SVO (special military operation).

Yuri Felshtinsky recalls that after February 24, 2022, when it became clear that Ukraine was not going to capitulate, but was fighting for its independence, the question arose, how to draw Russian troops out of the occupied territories? Especially since Russia send numerous troops initially, and when, as the Russian army was loosing them and replenishing with conscripts, volunteers, the Wagnerites and mobilized soldiers, they began to dig in the captured parts of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Regions, as a result of which the war took on a positional character, when it was very difficult for any of the parties to achieve a quick result."

The VOA's source believes that the Ukrainian army should not start with attempts to liberate the occupied territories, which have become a "land corridor" from the Rostov Region of Russia to Crimea, but with the blockade of the peninsula, then form a Belarusian division based on the Kalinouski Regiment, which will move to liberate Belarus from the Lukashenka regime and the Russian troops protecting him. According to the expert, there were all prerequisites for this, including political ones, since in August 2020, Belarusian voters "staged" the presidential election for the dictator again. After the beginning of mass repressions of the surviving regime against the opposition, a significant number of Lukashenka's opponents, including young people, were forced to leave the country. But they are ready to return to their homeland if there are signs of a change in the situation.

Yuri Felshtinsky believes that there are all prerequisites for the transformation of Belarus into a free democratic country. He continues: "And most importantly, take a look at the map, there is a geopolitical point: with the loss of Belarus, the Russian war in Ukraine loses any meaning. But I said all this before the Russian tactical nuclear weapons were supposedly deployed in Belarus. Also, when it became known about the preparations for this, I wrote that NATO member states are obliged to enter Belarus in order to prevent the transfer of Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons. As well as to immediately liberate Belarus from Lukashenka, because this creates an incredible level of risk for Eastern Europe."

Although it didn't go through.

Yuri Felshtinsky came to the conclusions in his article included in the book: “Belarus will not be able to maintain its independence if it remains outside NATO and the EU and instead declares neutrality or joins some regional associations such as the Baltic-Black Sea Union.”

The author of the article believes that against the background of the alleged liberation of Ukraine from the Russian occupation, which, in his opinion, will sooner or later take place, the accession of Belarus to NATO is an absolute historical inevitability. Because Belarus is a buffer state between the eastern flank of the EU and the Russian Federation. Currently, Russia does not plan to stop the war, but is ready to fight for decades in order to either die or win.

Felshtinsky also believes that today no one has an understanding of the consequences of this war, because they depend on the duration and the level of escalation. "For example, if Belarus launches a nuclear strike on Eastern Europe, which Sergei Karaganov called for in his publication last June," the historian recalls. According to Felshtinsky, NATO's entry into Russia's war against Ukraine in one form or another may be inevitable in light of this threat.