Bloomberg: Ukraine Marks New Stage In War

What is its peculiarity?

Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion has entered a new phase, pitting homegrown drone technology against a 2,000 kilometer (1,200 mile) swathe of largely Soviet-era oil facilities, writes Bloomberg.

At least nine major refineries have been successfully attacked this year, currently taking offline 11% of the country’s total capacity by some estimates.

“As the conflict at the front lines has shifted in Moscow’s favor, the drone campaign is becoming a key plank of Ukraine’s defense — both in its symbolism and its strategic aims,” the publication notes.

It gives Kyiv the ability to reach deep into Russian territory and strike an industry that’s crucial to the Kremlin’s war effort, providing both supplies of fuel to its armed forces and a flow of petrodollars into its coffers, the publication notes.

“Russia is a gas station with an army, and we intend on destroying that gas station,” Francisco Serra-Martins, co-founder and chief executive officer of drone manufacturer Terminal Autonomy, said in an interview. “We are going to focus on where it hits the hardest, and that’s financial resources.”

Six weeks ago the government in Kyiv established the Unmanned Systems Forces, a specialized unit focused on drones. By that point, Ukraine’s armed forces had already used the technology to great effect, destroying a number vessels in Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

And today, what started out as a largely symbolic effort, notably last year’s drone attack on the Kremlin, has become “a concerted campaign to inflict damage on a strategic target”, stated in the article.

According to the drone manufacturers Bloomberg talked to, this success did not come easily.

The flurry of attacks prompted a surge in prices for gasoline and diesel on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, although the cost of the fuel at the pump within Russia saw little movement. The country may have to divert more crude oil for export because of the impact on its refining rates.

For now, Ukraine’s drone campaign is focused solely on having an economic impact within Russia — hampering the country’s ability to process crude oil into fuel and wearing down its air defenses.

“It’s basically a new form of attrition warfare where these systems get deployed in massive volumes against strategic sites,” said Serra-Martins.

The attacks also have a psychological goal, said another drone manufacturer who spoke on condition of anonymity. Moscow’s propaganda tries to make its citizens forget the nation is at war, but long lines at fuel stations would bring the reality of conflict to their daily lives, the person said.

It is noted that the Russian authorities have made a concerted effort to mute any impact on the wider population. Several regions have asked people not to film drone attacks or take pictures of the damage they cause. The government of the Leningrad region went as far as banning such videos and pictures, although the punishment for violating the order has yet to be determined.

“This is taken very seriously,”said Alexei Mukhin, head of the Moscow-based Center for Political Information, which provides consulting services to the presidential administration. “The population wants to know when Russia’s going to hit back.”

It is also reminded that although drones have become an increasingly important element in Ukraine’s military strategy, they aren’t a substitute for sophisticated weapons from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

“Kyiv has to rely on these unmanned vehicles because its allies are reluctant to provide long-range missiles capable of destroying targets deep within Russia, for fear of escalation. On top of this, the months-long holdup of $60 billion of US military aid in Congress has left Ukraine increasingly short of even basic ordnance such as artillery shells in the face of recent Russian advances,” writes Bloomberg.