ISW: Ukrainian Forces Burned Russian Convoys Near Avdiivka Again

The Russians repeated their insane assault.

In the current offensive efforts of the occupiers, the Russian command could choose the Avdiivka direction as a priority. It was near the village of Tonenke captured by the Russians, that the Armed Forces of Ukraine recently repulsed the largest enemy armored offensive since the fall of 2023.

This is the subject of a new report by the Institute for the Study of War.

On March 30, the Armed Forces of Ukraine seem to have repelled a large-scale mechanized assault by Russians numbering up to a battalion of armored personnel carriers and tanks in the Avdiivka area of the Donetsk region — the ISW notes that this was the first mechanized attack by the occupiers at the battalion level since the Russian Federation began a new campaign to capture Avdiivka at the end of October 2023. ISW analysts refer to a report by a Ukrainian military who wrote on March 31 on X (previously Twitter) that Russian troops, in particular units of the Russian 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, Central Military District), on March 30, involved 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles in a large-scale mechanized assault near the village of Tonenke [on ISW, Deep State maps and according to Yuriy Butusov, the village is considered previously captured by the Russians].

The geolocated images, published on March 31, do show a large number of destroyed and damaged Russian armored vehicles and tanks along the road northwest of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka), ISW states. At the same time, the aforementioned Ukrainian military noted that during the assault, Ukrainian forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles, and the Russian frontal strike could not break through the Ukrainian defence line. The ISW notes that this is the first message about the involvement of units of the 90th Tank Division in assaults after the capture of Avdiivka by Russia. Analysts suggest that its forces “together with other Russian units and formations probably represent a sizable uncommitted operational reserve.” Therefore, their involvement may indicate the intention of the Russian command to continue and intensify offensive efforts west of Avdiivka. On the other hand, the failure of the attack of the 6th Tank Regiment near the village of Tonenke, may indicate that elements of Russia’s uncommitted operational reserve near Avdiivka may be too degraded or otherwise unable to lead further Russian advances westward in the short term," the ISW believes.

Analysts emphasize the “significant” scale of the attempt of the Russian mechanized assault on March 30. They recall that the Russians have not carried out attacks of this scale since October 2023, when the Ukrainian forces destroyed almost 50 Russian tanks and more than 100 other armors during the Russian offensive on Avdiivka on October 19-20, 2023. [The author of the message on X, writing under the nickname Kriegsforscher, additionally noted that this was the largest number of armored vehicles that the Russians simultaneously used in the offensive, for the period after the outbreak of the big war — Ed.] Experts also emphasize that the ability of the Ukrainian Forces to repel such mechanized assaults as it was on March 30 near Avdiivka, where Ukrainian forces were forced to quickly retreat to new defensive positions after the loss of the city, “is a positive indicator of Ukraine's ability to defend against future large-scale Russian offensives and the expected Russian offensive operation in the summer of 2024.” At the same time, the ISW emphasizes that Ukraine "quite justifiably" warns that its defensive capabilities in the summer can be affected by a shortage of ammunition, limited manpower resources and the delay of Western assistance. “Ukrainian forces may have had to expend a significant amount of material to defend against the Russian assault near Tonenke, highlighting Russia’s ability to conduct assaults that force Ukraine to expend outsized portions of its already limited material and manpower reserves to defend against,” the ISW noted. On the other hand, "Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to skillfully defend against a large-scale Russian assault in a particularly critical part of the front despite Ukraine’s challenges suggests that Ukrainian forces can achieve significant battlefield effects if they are properly equipped," analysts say.

The ISW suggests that the Russian command could prioritize the Avdiivka direction, as evidenced by the readiness to launch a battalion-size assault. "The Russian command can focus its possible offensive operation, which is expected in late spring—summer 2024, on the western part of the Donetsk region, hoping to develop a stable but insignificant progress of Russian troops in this sector," the ISW believes. Ukrainian officials recently warned that Russian troops are amassing personnel along the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis, particularly near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, and in the Zaporizhzhia region. However, ISW still assesses that the occupiers are likely capable of launching a general large-scale offensive operation in only one operational direction at a time due to the limited manpower of the Russians and their planning capabilities.