Mukhtar Ablyazov: Tokayev And Putin Both Are Making Show But There Will Be Revolution In Kazakhstan

The power in the country will change soon.

The thesis is actively spreading in the Russian information space that Kazakhstan may become the next target of the Kremlin. So the voice message of the odious Russian deputy Andrei Gurulev leaked online that "the Kazakhs will be next", and the former KGB officer Andrei Lugovoi shot a propaganda movie "The King's Personal Enemy. Kazakh Fracture".

However, one of the leaders of the Kazakh opposition, Mukhtar Ablyazov, believes this information wave is a game of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Putin. Astana talks about the "Russian Threat" in order to present Tokayev as a "defender of independence" (Belarusians well remember how such "horror stories" were told to European diplomats by former Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makei), although the latter was Kremlin's vassal for sure.

Mukhtar Ablyazov, the leader of the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan opposition movement, former Minister of Energy, Industry and Trade gave an interview to Charter97.org and told how Tokayev and Putin are making a show for the West, about the role of Astana in circumventing anti-Russian sanctions and expressed the opinion that there will be a revolution in his country in the near future.

There is a massive outrage against the current authorities and specifically Tokayev.

— What are the developments in Kazakhstan after the 2022 revolution?

— Half of the regions are now flooded In Kazakhstan. If you read social media, you can see the mood of people in all these regions. There is a massive outrage against the current authorities and specifically Tokayev. When the floods began, this lesser president, whom the whole country now calls "furniture", went to China. Crucial events were unfolding in Kazakhstan, and he was in China at that time saying: "Astana is ready to feed all the hungry people of the world." On this occasion, our whole country spat on him.

Then Tokayev came back, and on Sunday, when nothing worked, urgently appointed his adviser Kanat Bozumbayev as the Deputy Prime Minister. He is responsible for all these events like floods, organizes the fight against the consequences and the like. The parliament approved the decision on Sunday. All these events are taking place on an emergency basis, because the whole country has already spat on Tokayev. It also shows his fear. Then Tokayev flew to the Western region of the country, the oil capital of Kazakhstan, Atyrau, declared assistance and compensation that "everything is fine", and from there flew to Uzbekistan.

At this time, floods were intensifying, there was a mass evacuation of people, and Tokayev was with the President of Uzbekistan in Tashkent, he was beautifully greeted with songs and the like. Then he flew to Khiva, the whole country was already furious, and Tokayev with glass eyes declared that he "controls the situation." Then the Uzbeks show a video with dancing around him and things like that.

Instead of managing the situation, Tokayev comes to China, Uzbekistan, and then the Prime Minister flies to Kyrgyzstan. Of course, this causes anger in people. There is a mass challenge now, people post broken furniture pictures and write "Tokayev Resign" on social media.

"Tokayev – Putin's Vassal"

The situation has heated up, the peak of the flood has not even passed yet, it will be about April 20, all the main events are yet to come. There is a city near Atyrau, 70,000 people live there, it is completely evacuated, the city is flooded. Residents of Atyrau are massively leaving now, 300,000 population, a large wave is expected. People are outraged that they invested their resources, and the government does nothing, pays nothing, compensates nothing, and so on.

Apparently, Tokayev forgot that spring begins in March. But back in December, Kazhydromet (the National Hydrometeorological Service of Kazakhstan) warned that the winter was cold, the soil was deeply frozen and, accordingly, when there will be floods, the water will go over the surface.

The previous two years, Tokayev stated that "he had just become president", that "he had just now gained real power". However, back in January 2022, I said that "Tokayev is just furniture", that the country felt under Russia, as it was in Belarus.

The same thing is happening to us. Industrial assets merge with Putin, and these are ports, a metallurgical plant and so on. The largest uranium deposit in the world, Budenovskoye, worth at least $16 billion, was simply registered free of charge for Russian oligarchs.

And this process goes further, Tokayev is Putin's vassal, in fact, the country is put under Russia, it will be formalized in the form of a union treaty or something else. As in the Soviet Union, there was the so-called Kazakh SSR or BSSR. The country will be "repackaged" this way. Putin is building an empire, trying to restore the borders of the former Soviet Union.

During these two years, there were, of course, people who said: "Give him time, he speaks five languages" and so on. During these two years, there has been a total discrediting of this idea. There were fires that this government could not cope with, then the massive freezing of the cities, and now these floods.

This wave will unfold and carry this mode with renewed vigor.

I assume that with a high degree of probability the protest will be of a larger scale and greater strength. And, in fact, everything will end badly for this political elite. For example, if it were more clearly organized, I aspire to this really, it would simply be a sharp demolition of the regime, a peaceful transition of power, "repackaging" — an interim government within six months, during which time new fair elections, a unicameral parliament, the elimination of the presidency will happen. All these programs and steps are established, I personally lead the country to this, I insist, I speak on the air and so on.

I predict that in a year, maybe a little more, but the regime will inevitably fall. But events can also unfold in such a way that everything will happen before the end of this year.

— Belarus and Russia are actively using Kazakhstan to circumvent sanctions. There is information that the Russian Federation has asked Tokayev for oil products. What do you know about Kazakhstan's circumvention of sanctions against the Lukashenka and Putin regimes?

— There are reports on this topic published since the end of 2022, made by the Open Dialog Foundation. A lot of analytical materials have been released, where, based on state statistical data, the role of Kazakhstan in helping Putin is spotted. Actually, all this was the reason why it was proved in the Western media that Kazakhstan was providing large-scale assistance to Russia. In fact, this is the number one country in this regard, because it is adjacent to Russia and China.

"Kazakhstan is playing with disinformation"

There are huge volumes of official and unofficial cargoes from China to Russia going through the territory of Kazakhstan, from the countries of Central Asia, in particular — Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and other countries. There were many publications in the international media regarding this issue. I spoke at Mark Feygin's show at the end of April, and provided everything in detail: the figures, volumes, who does it, how they do it, and so on.

Kazakhstan is now playing with disinformation, "it is allegedly under the threat of Russian pressure", that "allegedly helps Ukraine" and so on.

Tokayev tries to sit on two chairs, portraying that "it is difficult for Kazakhstan to maneuver on its own", and "Kazakhstan is a friend of Ukraine". Such a "trick", in fact, was included into the media. I spoke for more than six months on Ukrainian media channels, where I persistently said: "Do not succumb to all these fakes, they just use you, they will make fools of you."

"It seemed to me that there was mass and sudden clarification among Ukrainians"

Back in October 2022, Ukrainian intelligence made a statement in the Italian newspaper La Repubblica that Kazakhstan is actively supplying various microchips and electronics, which Russia uses to integrate into shells and missiles, which are then sprinkled on the heads of Ukrainians. At the end of 2022, Ukrainian officials said, “Now we know that Kazakhstan is Putin's ally.”

And all these claims against Kazakhstan were clearly voiced after May 9, 2023, when it was Victory Day, and Tokayev, together with Putin, stood on the rostrum in Moscow.

Then the Ukrainians began to cry and say: "And we believed you, and you, it turns out, are pro-Putin", and so on. I always openly attacked the journalist Dmitry Gordon and said: "What are you saying, how can you openly praise Tokayev? That he's smart, intelligent and the like. This is a person who helps Putin." And it seemed to me that such a mass and sudden clarification had come. But no, in 2022 there were presidential elections in Kazakhstan, Zelensky congratulated Tokayev on his victory too. In fact, all political opponents in the country were eliminated, and in January of this year, Tokayev staged mass executions. Of course, I was just confused.

"The role of Kazakhstan is the same as the role of Belarus"

I sent all the reports with facts and figures directly to Zelensky's Office. That is, they are aware, but, unfortunately, Ukraine continues to utter such heresies, including from the first person of the state, that "Kazakhstan will be next". What for? Why don't they say, for example, that Belarus will be next? This is obvious, everyone knows and understands that Lukashenka is Putin's vassal, totally obedient.

In Western publications, especially over the past year, many wrote that "Kazakhstan is the back door of Putin", that Kazakhstan's role is the same as that of Belarus. Only from the point of view of circumventing sanctions, Kazakhstan plays this card — puts yurts in Ukraine and says: "Here, we are helping." He delivers humanitarian aid worth a couple of million, and the Ukrainians immediately rejoice: "You know, Putin is losing, he was left alone."

They want to be deceived, despite all this open data, the same is true for Kyrgyzstan. Caravans of trucks, borders, all this is known, but, apparently, the political leadership of Ukraine wants to deceive itself. Why does the enemy keep pushing you? Because of your mistakes of sizing up the enemy.

— Does it mean that all this aggressive rhetoric of the Kremlin against Kazakhstan, the same statements of Gurulev, Lugovoi's film, are aimed at distinguishing Tokayev from Lukashenka, bypassing this sanction?

— Of course, look, the propagandist Keosayan also said: "Oh, did you, Kazakhs, get crazy there? You do not celebrate May 9 there, you offend Russian-speakers." He is the husband of Margarita Simonyan, who interviewed on a panel in St. Petersburg in June 2022, where Tokayev so "courageously" stated that he did not recognize the "DPR" and "LPR". There was a lot of screaming and enthusiastic noise, and then the Ukrainians realized that this was a lie. Gordon, when I gave him an interview, said, "Well, I want to believe in the good, I believed him, I praised him. And now, as I understand it, this is done in order to create some kind of image and help circumvent Western sanctions in this way."

Kazakh diplomats appear in offices in Brussels, in the US, and so on, saying: “What can we do, we are sitting, we are balancing. You see — they threaten to take our northern territories. We can face all sorts of events inside." That's how cheating happens. The sponsor of the so-called "Unbreakable Yurts" installed throughout Ukraine has an asbestos production plant in Orenburg with an annual income of about $200 million.

As you know in Russia, if someone starts speaking and has business – the business will be confiscated and the person jailed. However, the person who owns the largest plant for the production of asbestos openly puts the "Unbreakable Yurts". I provided all the information to the Ukrainian side.

"It is necessary not to chase fake companies, but to beat the political leadership"

Our assumption was that since this is the number one country that helps to circumvent sanctions, it is necessary not to chase fake companies, which are immediately liquidated, but to beat the political leadership. In an authoritarian dictatorial country, all companies through which such assistance and supplies are provided are under the control of the current authorities, in fact, as in Belarus. If so, then it is necessary not to "chase the shadows", but to strike at once at the political top.

In our reports, we gave the names of those who should be driven under sanctions, and argued why this should be done. It is necessary to beat Tokayev, who has assets in Switzerland and other countries. Our entire political elite has assets abroad.

As for Lugovoy, who made a film about Kazakhstan, at first I did not even watch the first part, but today I saw that, it turns out, some part of this film is dedicated to me. I know Lugovoy well, in 2006 my business partners from Russia persuaded me to take him as the head of the security service in my business. He came to me many times, we considered this. I know him well, I studied his biography well, he worked with Boris Berezovsky, and also dealt with security issues there. I refused.

Then it turned out that this person who organized the murders in London [Lugovoy is involved in the murder of a former KGB officer – the co-author of the book "Blowing Up Russia", Alexander Litvinenko Ed.], he was also an FSB agent, their agent, to put it simple. Here he showed himself and made a movie.

They need to build a model that there is a "Western threat", "Kazakhstan in the person of Tokayev is a friend of Russia", but all sorts of different agents want to come and turn the country upside down. At the end of the film, Lugovoy positively addresses Kazakhstan and the Kazakhs that "Russia is your friend", "in January 2022, you were allegedly saved".

So I assess the situation this way: Ukraine knows everything. There is evidence that Kazakhstan is helping in a large-scale circumvention of sanctions. However, they do not take measures, everyone tells stories that "Kazakhstan will be the next after Ukraine."

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