‘The Kremlin Will Face Difficult Choice’

The effect of the attacks on Russian refineries is already palpable.

Politico writes that a wave of drone strikes on oil refineries deep in Russia has led to the Kremlin running out of gasoline. The attacks continued tonight. The Ryazan Oil Refinery, which is the largest in central Russia, is under attack.

How will events develop further in the “gasoline war”? Co-director of foreign policy programs, coordinator of international projects of the Razumkov Center, military expert Oleksiy Melnyk told Charter97.org about this:

— Indeed, this is one of Russia’s pain points if we are talking about the Russian Federation’s ability to finance a war. I think there is no need to explain to everyone how important the timely supply of fuel is for refueling tanks or cars, especially during the sowing season. The Kremlin will face a difficult choice of where to send this fuel in case of a shortage.

In addition, fuel shortages affect pricing policies. Even with the quasi-market economy that exists in Russia, it is still possible to restrain price increases only for a certain short period. And the consequences are also clear to everyone — this is quiet discontent, even if it is at the lowest level. As a result, it can, let’s say, accumulate and merge with other reasons, and then, accordingly, threaten, if not the regime, then at least the level of passive support.

As for the publication in Politico, I think that so far their conclusions are exaggerated. Yes, we can talk about causing damage, I saw data of about a 13% drop in the production of petroleum products. There is objective evidence that this really has an effect — the restriction on the export of petroleum products, which came into force, if I’m not mistaken, on March 1. There were also reports that the Russian government was negotiating with Kazakhstan and Belarus to reserve volumes of petroleum products for export. Especially gasoline. There is an effect, but at the moment it is not so significant to affect Russia’s ability to conduct military operations.

— How can this “gasoline war” develop further? Let's simulate possible scenarios.

— If Ukraine is able to damage, say, not 13%, but 30% of capacity, and disable these oil refining enterprises, then the effect will be noticeable. I will repeat again, Politico was probably too hasty in drawing conclusions regarding the depletion of supplies. If you constantly carry out such effective attacks, then at some point these reserves will actually be exhausted.

I am sure that Russia has colossal strategic reserves; every military unit has a supply of petroleum products. For air bases, it constitutes a fuel supply for 20 flight shifts. These are the standards. Whether they have it or not, it’s hard to say, but based on Soviet requirements, then there are at least 20 days for the government to find some alternative sources of supplies.

In some short or medium term, this will have an effect and consequences on events in the theater of operations. Accordingly, it will force the Russian government to make certain political decisions.