‘Rzeczpospolita’: Lukashenka Fears Ukraine’s Response

Military facilities near Baranavichy and Vileyka could become targets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Putin wants to force Lukashenka to participate more actively in the war against Ukraine. This is stated in an article by the popular Polish publication “Rzeczpospolita” (translated from Polish by Charter97.org).

“Belarus has a very developed air defense, and I do not rule out that Putin needs the support of Minsk to cover the nearby Bryansk and Kursk regions. Because Russian air defense is full of holes,” Oleksiy Melnyk, a Ukrainian expert on international security from the Razumkov Center in Kyiv, told the publication.

Lukashenka has already betrayed Ukraine once, and no one trusts him anymore. Therefore, serious forces of the Ukrainian army are deployed on the border with Belarus, and defensive fortifications have been built.

“In 2022, when the Russians burst from the territory of Belarus and missiles flew from there, Ukraine made a political decision not to strike at the Lukashenka regime, so as not to give him reasons for the participation of his army in this war. This time, after two years of war, Kyiv's response could be completely different. Ukraine is demonstrating an increasingly radical approach, including attacks on Russian territory,” he says.

Ukrainian combat drones have reached many oil refineries deep inside Russia. And recently they attacked the Russian long-range radar station “Voronezh M”, located in Orsk (Orenburg region). This is more than 1,800 kilometers from the Ukrainian-Russian border.

A similar Russian Volga station is located near the Belarusian Baranavichy (this is only 120 kilometers from the Ukrainian border). Near Vileyka (less than 300 kilometers from the border with Ukraine), the Russian communications base Antey has been located since Soviet times, through which the Russian Navy command connects with submarines in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Lukashenka, looking at a map of oil refineries burning in Russia, cannot help but take into account the fact that just 40 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, in Mazyr, there is one of his two oil refineries supplying Belarusians with fuel. In addition, most enterprises of the Belarusian defense industry will be in the range of Ukrainian drones and missiles that Kyiv has.

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